15/18 Subsectors Decel/Key Consumer Sentiment Measures Troubling/ H2 Cost Declines Cushion 2026 Profit Outlooks… December Staples Briefing Book

By Jonathan Feeney and David Schick and David Katzman and Jack Hermann Published on December 30, 2025 PDF

Please see the full attached 41-page Briefing Book.

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•Fine Dining & Hospitality / Luxury that Cares – Virtual Meeting with Jose Andres Group CEO – 1/20 Register Here

•Food & Beverage Strategy Outlook with Mark Pogharian – mid January

December real-time spending is softening across 15/18 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors, we note: positive inflection in pet, dollar, and fast food ticket versus negative inflection across club, hard discounters, and mainstream spending growth. Club and hard discounters continue to outpace mainstream, but less so. Luxury transaction count growth an unexpected pickup… See pp 5-12.

Callouts from our proprietary Optimal Cost Factor (which incorporates 30 – cost inputs)… Input costs down off energy moves, with natural gas declines helping all manufacturers in recent weeks. Cocoa has leveled off into year end, but is still the most notable 2025 input tailwind. Input declines alongside easing labor costs are helping the restaurant profit outlook, especially wings. Leading beneficiaries of current cost relief include HSY, MDLZ & Wing Restaurants… See p 14.

U.S. FDA approved the first oral GLP-1 for weight management this December for potential offerings early 2026. Food and beverage manufacturers could face another structural headwind.

Staples have underperformed discretionary and the broader market since mid-2025 (See p 26). We monitor fundamentals of the largest staples names (See p 20-23). With consumer spending reported better than expected for 3Q25, continued demand for essential goods and broader consumer spending are causes for optimism despite historic pessimism in reported Consumer Sentiment. See p 36.

OA CS Deck December 2025 Download

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