2026 Considerations / Optimal’s 2025 Top Holiday Playlist

By Jonathan Feeney and David Schick and David Katzman and Jack Hermann Published on December 17, 2025 PDF

1. “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Agentic/AI Commerce Matters.” Moving from AI assisted search to AI purchase & delivery could create a huge realignment of spending, customer acquisition and disintermediation across products & channels. Please join our Virtual Meeting – Agentic AI Commerce & Stablecoin / Crypto – Impacts in 2026 & Beyond … Friday 12/19 @ 11 am ET. Key impacts: Retailers face new substantial potential spending needs (WMT has led the way) and many decisions about staying “in-house” with their own tooling. We believe a slow roll makes sense given (1) overall slowing AI usage; (2) price compression for bringing tools in-house; (3) complexities from omni-channel if AI commerce happens off the retailer’s own platform. FMCG companies face the need for spending & rewiring of customer acquisition, with some already talking about their plans (PG, CL). Leading E-commerce platforms (GOOG, META, AMZN) have some incumbency advantage with massive data leads and cashflow, though offset by risk to their $500 billion in global advertising spending. Increased risk to software & service providers to all sectors who face “crowding out” and delayed implementations as companies wait & see.

2. “All I Want for Christmas” is for you remember fuel prices are the ultimate precursor. Upstream consumer input costs are down -3.3% y/y while energy costs have declined more than 50% from their 2022 peak. Taxes and explicit stimulus get the headlines – but those impacts are overwhelmed by consumer spend on energy, food, healthcare and housing in the middle 60% of households. This is a constructive backdrop for 2026. Key impact: Improved consumer discretionary spending which should help all retailers, while stressed FMCG business models should expand margins — especially those with historic pricing power (e.g. HSY, MDLZ).

3. “Rockin’ Around the Deal Tree” will be a factor – could provide both solutions and a notable hole to fill in aggregate investing demand. Space X leads 2026’s class of potential IPOs – the best in recent memory. With lots of companies across consumer looking for strategic options, some of that deal enthusiasm support FMCG and other underperforming sectors looking to deals for relief. We also note the sheer proposed capitalization of AI and SpaceX means a substantial investing hole must be filled at a time cash allocations are near historic lows (see next point). Key impact: Consumer leaders (e.g. KHC) openly exploring strategic options could see more demand, while new potential IPOs (OFRM) and recent spinoffs (MICC) could benefit.

4. “Fairytale of Wealth Impact” … of strong housing & stock markets are waning & cash levels suggest little wiggle room. The high end has disproportionately driven spending growth since 2020 due to the trifecta of strong home prices, equity markets, and white-collar job / income growth. While all of those engines are intact-ish, we note all could be on fumes just as households are near record high exposure to equities v cash (November AAII survey). Households have 4.8x equities to cash exposure, well above the 3.3x average since 2000. We track consumer Wealth Effect weekly and note since our index began decelerating meaningfully in October we have calculated a meaningful pullback in high-end spending and Sentiment. We also see crypto volatility/softness interacting in some consumer spending. Key impact: the economy is running out of its jet fuel – spending.

5. “Do They Know There’s Geo Risks” … but we believe India is the more compelling story than China for Western brands, retailers, concepts. These include widely discussed factors such as the cold war between the U.S. & China and an unclear resolution to the hot war in Russia. We note it also surprising diplomatic and strategic risks in India – which we think is the most underrated global risk & opportunity in 2026. On 12/2, Optimal Advisory hosted a discussion with Dan Markey, senior fellow in China & South Asian programs at the Stimson Center in Washington DC. Please refer to our notes for more detail. Key Impact: Potentially rising risk premia, at risk valuations for all companies, especially those with a global focus.

6. “Alcohol Affordability is Comin’ to Town”. Alcohol is largely a premium-skewing good in the U.S. that has underperformed amidst rising prices and reduced promotion. Is alcohol’s decline in the U.S. really more about affordability than lifestyle choice as is often suggested by industry leaders? We’ll likely find out in early 2026 — with shopping now getting more affordable. Key Impact: A potential surprise bottoming in U.S. alcohol demand (BUD, STZ, DEO, PRNDY, SAM), with a potential assist from national hemp beverage regulation that has discretely impacted (ca. 100 bps) beer demand.

7. “Hark the GLP-1 Impacts Continue”. The adoption of GLP-1 agonists has curtailed demand for food, beverage & restaurant leaders, but potentially helps retail, driving apparel from our industry conversations. As the next wave of drugs are getting easier to use, cheaper and more available, we expect this disruption to continue. On the other hand, their limited adoption in other developed markets suggests the impact may be limited to a cohort of permanent intermittent users. Key Impact: a well-known headwind for food & beverage leaders (and driver for apparel) that could normalize throughout 2026.

8. “AI Came Upon an Economy Clear” with an impact on jobs, especially at the high end. Since the GFC, layoffs have been largely a structural adjustment affecting low/mid income consumers. Now, AI is coming for the middle-high income, and even top 1% jobs (recently announced McKinsey 10% workforce reduction). Unemployment is running +10% y/y (#s of unemployed). In the most recent data, if we remove 2020-2024 as Covid dislocation and recover … the last time Unemployment y/y was positive y/y for 6 months consecutively then accelerated to +10% y/y was … 4Q07 and looks a lot like 2000 and 1990 inflection, too. Key Impact: A risk to employment for all & consumer sentiment where it hurts most – at the high end. AI likely provides a partial offset from improving corporate profits.

9. “Have Yourself an Integrated AI System”. Potential disintermediation of traditional advertising – including photos, characters, images & actors as AI replaces those with agile digital copy (and video) that learns iteratively to optimize response is a pending game changer. This further eliminates a competitive advantage for brands of all kinds, and has some impact to the biggest retailers that have turned on advertising on-site. Key Impact: A risk to restaurants, FMCG brands, and to a lesser extent retailers (smaller maybe better here). Oh, and advertising companies – but you knew that.

10. “Do They Know an Independent Fed Matters?” when slower spending, lagging persistent inflation? With the choice of a new Fed Chair pending, there are rampant questions near our Washington office as to whether U.S. central bank independence & its mandate to control inflation becomes history (and ends up in a Smithsonian museum that too becomes history). Key Impact: A risk to credit & equity valuations, with some offsetting rotation to business models with greater demonstrated pricing power.

DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS

Analyst Certification

The analyst primarily responsible for the preparation of this report attests to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this report.

Analyst Certifications And Independence

Each of the Optimal Advisory analysts whose names appear on the front page of this report hereby certify that all the views expressed in this Report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views of in this Report.

Optimal Advisory (the “Company”) is an independent equity advisory provider. The Company is not a member of the FINRA or the SIPC and is not a registered broker dealer or investment adviser. Optimal Advisory has no other regulated or unregulated business activities which conflict with its provision of independent advisory work.

Limitations Of Research And Information

This Report has been prepared for distribution to only qualified institutional or professional clients of Optimal Advisory. The contents of this Report represent the views, opinions, and analyses of its authors. The information contained herein does not constitute financial, legal, tax or any other advice. All third-party data presented herein were obtained from publicly available sources which are believed to be reliable; however, the Company makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning the accuracy or completeness of such information. In no event shall the Company be responsible or liable for the correctness of, or update to, any such material or for any damage or lost opportunities resulting from use of this data.

Nothing contained in this Report or any distribution by the Company should be construed as any offer to sell, or any solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or investment. Any research or other material received should not be construed as individualized investment advice. Investment decisions should be made as part of an overall portfolio strategy and you should consult with a professional financial advisor, legal and tax advisor prior to making any investment decision. Optimal Advisory shall not be liable for any direct or indirect, incidental or consequential loss or damage (including loss of profits, revenue or goodwill) arising from any investment decisions based on information or research obtained from Optimal Advisory.

Optimal Advisory may receive consulting or other compensation from securities mentioned but is not related to any recommendation in this report.

Reproduction And Distribution Strictly Prohibited

No user of this Report may reproduce, modify, copy, distribute, sell, resell, transmit, transfer, license, assign or publish the Report itself or any information contained therein. Notwithstanding the foregoing, clients with access to working models are permitted to alter or modify the information contained therein, provided that it is solely for such client’s own use. This Report is not intended to be available or distributed for any purpose that would be deemed unlawful or otherwise prohibited by any local, state, national or international laws or regulations or would otherwise subject the Company to registration or regulation of any kind within such jurisdiction.

Copyrights, Trademarks, Intellectual Property

Optimal Advisory, and any logos or marks included in this Report are proprietary materials. The use of such terms and logos and marks without the express written consent of Optimal Advisory is strictly prohibited. The copyright in the pages or in the screens of the Report, and in the information and material therein, is proprietary material owned by Optimal Advisory unless otherwise indicated. The unauthorized use of any material on this Report may violate numerous statutes, regulations and laws, including, but not limited to, copyright, trademark, trade secret or patent laws.

Additional Information is available upon request.

For more information on receiving Optimal Advisory, email: [email protected]