26/32 Subsectors Inflecting Positive / “Canary in Coalmine” Gen Z Cohort Brand Winners & Losers … Jan 2026 Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book

By David Schick and Jonathan Feeney and David Katzman and Jack Hermann Published on January 21, 2026 PDF

Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you our updated, 100+ chart, attached Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book.

Softer discretionary trends have improved in January … we note overall spending reaccelerating as monitored in our weekly Monday Macro. In this deck we analyze real-time positive inflection in 26 of 32 proprietary Optimal subsectors (there was negative inflection in 21/30 last month). Positive inflections in discretionary subsectors luxury, e-commerce, home-furnishings… versus continued softness for accommodations and airlines and negative inflections in the subsectors of gas stations, cruises, grocery… see pp 11-22

Optimal’s Attention Economy monitor callouts: we screen over 1000 companies across consumer and note non-normal mindshare inflections, highlighted by positive social/news sentiment growth at CCL, DRI, NCLH, and ULTA. Key cohort Gen-Z mindshare showed strength for DTC & lifestyle focused brands (Comfrt, Owala, Quince, Alo Yoga, BOOT, LULU, Ugg, LULU and Hollister)… see pp 5-9

Our macroeconomic consumer callouts include: (a) Continuing unemployment claims are running up y/y but less sharply, job postings running down for the majority of US industries but we note pick-up in construction job postings… pp 36 (b) inflation trended lower as December Core CPI (+2.6% y/y) came in below expectations and at lowest levels seen in years… pp 37 (c) Consumer Sentiment and current conditions are down significantly y/y, higher-income sentiment declines leading y/y pessimism… pp 38-39 (d) Mortgage rates closed 2025 at their lowest level in over 16 months. We note softening in home prices and a sharp increase in mortgage refi applications – though Greenland commentary aftermath did impact bond prices and moved mortgage rates meaningfully higher . Housing-related activity accounts for roughly 18% of U.S. GDP, changes in market velocity have meaningful macro implications.… pp 40

Optimal Consumer Disc Briefing Book Jan 2026 Download

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