Spending & Transactions Decel as Stressed Consumers Feel Pinch, Ticket Resilient as Others Don’t; Costs To the Rescue for CPG Outlooks? Consumer Staples November Briefing Book

Please see the full attached 42-page Briefing Book.

November real-time spending is softening across 15/18 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors, we also note positive inflection in spending growth for club & mainstream grocers’ ticket… versus a surprisingly sharp drop in grocery delivery and premium grocery growth. … See pp 5-12.

Transactions down partially offset by ticket up…suggesting uneven pockets of consumer stress.  Ticket is inflecting same or better in November for 14/18 tracked spending indices but transactions are inflecting same or worse in 16 of those 18 in the L4W vs L12W.    Specifically, we note traffic for affordable luxuries including premium grocers (including The Fresh Market & Sprouts) and restaurants inflecting negatively, with generally better ticket.

Tariff relief augments suddenly rosy cost outlook for food & beverage producers.  On Friday 11/14,  the Trump administration rolled back tariffs on dozens of food related items, bringing the largest potential margin relief to MKC (+200 bps), CAG (+180 bps) & HSY (+175 bps).  Overall,  input cost headwinds have turned to tailwinds – this unexpected windfall could make otherwise woeful 2026 food & beverage outlooks less bad.  Leading beneficiaries of current cost reliefs include HSY, LW, MDLZ.

Our upcoming virtual client meetings, contact us with questions:

  • China and India Markets 2026-2040 (Forces at Work) with Dan Markey senior fellow in China & South Asia programs at Stimson Center prior CFR, Hopkins SAIS, Institute of Peace – Virtual 12/2  Register Here
  • Lens on Luxury & Sport – Optimal Conversation with Aston Martin F1 – 12/9 Register Here
  • Fine Dining & Hospitality / Luxury that Cares – Virtual Meeting with Jose Andres Group CEO – 12/16 Register Here