16/17 Subsectors Inflecting Positive, Restaurants Improving, Gathering Storm of Disinflation Hits Grocer Ticket, Costs Helping CPG… Jan 2026 Consumer Staples Briefing Book

Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts. 

January real-time spending is improving as 16/17 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors now inflecting positively (compared to 14/17 inflecting negatively last month). … See pp 5-12.

We note:

  • Positive inflection in restaurants (MCD, CMG, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAVA) and beauty (EL, ELF, ULTA) spending.
  • Restaurant spending improving in each of its 3 subsectors (fast food, fast casual, casual)
  • Negative inflection for hard discounters & mainstream grocery ticket (KR, ACI) likely reflecting the early innings of perishables disinflation. Dollar and club clear leaders.

Callouts from our proprietary Optimal Cost Factor (which incorporates 30 + cost inputs)… Cost relief from lower input costs remains despite winter energy spike. Lower meats/protein costs continue to benefit food service industry, creating timely (GLP-1) center plate protein opportunities. Leading beneficiaries of current cost relief include HSY, LW, MDLZ & Wing Restaurants... See p 14.

Staples starting 2026 strong as a broadening market leads outperformance over discretionary and the broader market (See p 26). We monitor fundamentals of the largest staples names (See p 20-23). Evidence of less pressure on middle class with Core CPI at its lowest year/year level since 2021, and lower mortgage rates hope to open the locked in US housing market. See p 35-38.

Our upcoming virtual client meetings, contact us with questions:

2026 Outlook for Retail / Brands / Sourcing with Michael Mone, President & CEO of apparel supplier Harry Bachrach – 2/6

2026-2028 Housing & Economy – Midterms, Policy, and Other Considerations – Virtual Client Meeting with Ted Gayer, President of the Niskanen Center – 2/20

2026 Alcoholic Beverage Outlook — Virtual Client Meeting with Michael Cherner, President of Prestige-Ledroit – 2/27