Spending Moderating, Cost Tailwinds Vanishing, Protein Up (JBS+,HRL+), Drinking Steady (SAM+, BFB+), MKC Goes Global As World Plays Defense. March Consumer Staples Briefing Book

Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts. 

March real-time spending is moderating as 7/18 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors now inflecting positively (compared to 10/18 inflecting positively last month); we note: positive inflection in premium grocers and pharmacy versus negative inflection for grocery delivery, dollar, and club. Mainstream grocery is losing spend share versus premium & other formats… See pp 5-12.

Callouts from our proprietary Optimal Cost Factor (which incorporates 30 + cost inputs) is down (-2.2% y/y) but cost tailwinds being quickly wiped out by higher oil prices. Leading beneficiaries of current cost relief include HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+ & Wing Restaurants+… See p 14.
Our input cost analysis provides a more real-time lens on current price volatility and implications.

Staples continues to outperform discretionary & the broader market in a defensive rotation (See p 26). We monitor fundamentals of the largest staples names (See p 20-23).

Optimal’s Spring 2026 Luxury Summit NYC is 4/14 with brands from around the ecosystem and a discussion of wellness / longevity / luxury convergence. Contact us for details.