AS+, CALY+, LUCK-, EA-, Monitoring Declines in Experiences and Entertainment Spending, Weekly NKE Update, News of Note, Game of the Week: The Optimal Sports Section

By David Katzman and David Schick and Jonathan Feeney and Jack Hermann Published on April 1, 2026 PDF

The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran down -1.9% y/y, (the 12-week trend is flat, we note -190 bps inflection). By sector, Sports Fandom’s 8-week spending trend is worst at down -12.9% y/y (primarily due to -12.4% T8W y/y at Ticketmaster) and Sports Participation spending is down -3.4% (transactions down -9.0%), while Sports Betting spending is up +2.9%.

NKE beat Q3 estimates the share price is down over -15% on guidance, primarily sales in China, impacts of oil prices, geopolitical disruption, & tariffs (as we have noted, “canary in the coalmine, very early indicators are showing traction).

AS (+): Spending, digital traffic, news sentiment, and Twitter sentiment are all improving, and digital traffic is accelerating as well.

CALY (+): Spending growth continues to lead measured brands and digital traffic is up over 10% y/y (although we note minor digital traffic decel).

LUCK (-): Spending is down over -30% y/y and digital traffic is down nearly -10%, with outsized decel in spending and foot traffic.

EA (-): Spending, digital traffic, & news sentiment are all declining, and digital traffic is also decelerating.

Optimal’s Entertainment and Experiences revenue tracker is showing declines (-6.7% T4W Y/Y) and decel (T4W Y/Y trend is 180 bps below T8W Y/Y trend) in spending on aggregate across the 91 constituent brands (although slightly above late 2025 levels), which further informs declining Sports Fandom spend trends.

The Sports Fandom Index’s equity performance has improved over the last week (+3.0%) and outperformed benchmark indices, while the Sports Participation Index (-0.7%) and Sports Betting & Data Index (-0.5%) equity performances have both slightly declined over the past week and been approximately in-line with benchmarks.

Headlines

Headline: Authentic Brands is viewing a potential acquisition of Converse from Nike.
- Takeaway: While Nike has not yet engaged in any conversations regarding a sale, the Converse brand has struggled and complicated the overall turnaround. The distraction and drag is more problematic than any customer accretion (which we can see) is beneficial, so we’d expect any sale to be taken as a positive.
- Link: Report: Authentic Brands eyes potential acquisition in Converse
Headline: Chelsea reported a pre-tax loss of $349.49M during the 2024-2025 season, the largest loss in English soccer history.
- Takeaway: The loss was primarily due to increases in costs; the club reported revenue of $653M, their second highest recorded revenue number.
- Link: Chelsea report biggest annual loss in English soccer history of $349.49M
Headline: The Pro Padel League, which has 10 teams spanning the US, Mexico, & Canada, announced the closing of a $15M Series A Funding Round led by Charlotte Hornets Co-Chairman and Governor Rick Schnall.
- Takeaway: This funding round is another example of the rapid growth of emerging sports leagues as padel continues to be one of the most increasingly popular sports both in the US and globally.
- Link: Pro Padel League Completes $15M Series A Funding Round | SGB Media Online

Games of the Week:

NCAAW: #1 UConn vs. #1 South Carolina (April 3rd @ 7:00 PM EST), #1 UCLA vs. #1 Texas (April 3rd @ 9:30 PM EST), NCAAW Finals (April 5th @ 3:30 PM EST): On the women’s side, all four #1 seeds have advanced to the Final Four, as UConn (-160) remains the favorite to take home the championship.
NCAAM: #2 UConn vs. #3 Illinois (April 4th @ 6:09 PM EST), #1 Michigan vs. #1 Arizona (April 4th @ 8:49 PM EST), NCAAM Finals (Monday April 6th @ 8:30 PM EST): After UConn’s thrilling comeback victory over Duke and Iowa finally unable to pull an upset off against Illinois after making the elite eight as a #9 seed, the men’s semifinals will feature one matchup between #1 seeds and another matchup between a #2 seed and a #3 seed.

Stat of the Week: Braylon Mullins’s 1 of 1 Buzzer Beater

There have been 137 go-ahead buzzer beaters in NCAA tournament history (in the last 4 seconds of the game) and 125 excluding free throws (but including and-1’s). Of those 125, 22 occurred in the elite 8 or later, and 7 of those were scored by a team down at least 1 point. Of those 7, 6 were 2-point field goals scored by a team down 1 point (two of which were scored by Christian Laettner), and the final remaining buzzer beater, the Braylon Mullins buzzer beater vs. Duke this past Sunday, was a 3-point field goal scored by a team down 2 points, the only such instance in the elite eight or later in NCAA tournament history.

Elite 8 or Later Buzzer Beaters in NCAAM Tournament History

Source: Optimal Advisory analysis, Sports Reference