Restaurant Spend Hurting, Cost Whiplash Threatens CPG Outlooks – Midyear FYs At Most Risk (CPB-, GIS-, CAG-), GLP-1 Effects Surprising. June Consumer Staples Briefing Book

By Jonathan Feeney and David Schick and David Katzman and Jack Hermann Published on June 2, 2026 PDF

Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts.

May real-time spending pressured as 4/19 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors inflecting positively (compared to just 2/19 inflecting positively last month); we note: positive inflection in gas stations & luxury versus negative inflection for grocery delivery, pet, & e-commerce. Hard discounters are lagging while mainstream grocery is again losing spend share versus premium & other formats… See pp 5-12.

While restaurants spending is pressured, we’re still waiting for signs of pickup in the grocery channel. People are eating somewhere, aren’t they? As our work shows affluent households adopting GLP-1 at greater rates, we think customer volume/mix is part of the issue for both the mainstream & premium grocery channels.

After 6 months of cost tailwinds, war driven higher energy prices have created a rarely seen challenge to prospective CPG budgets. The Optimal Cost Factor (which incorporates 30 + cost inputs) is now rising (+7.9% y/y, was down ~12% y/y in February) – creating a putative ~300 bps gross margin outlook swing. Remaining beneficiaries of current cost relief include HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+ & Wing Restaurants+… See p. 14.

Staples continues to outperform discretionary but lagging tech and the broader market (See p 26). We monitor fundamentals of the largest staples names (See p 20-23).

Optimal unpacks The World Cup Catalyst: Consumer Activation in the Age of Agentic AI on Thursday, June 4^th 11AM ET – Virtual Meeting.

OA Consumer Staples Deck June 2026 Download

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