Auto Parts+, Gas Stations+, Pizza-, Luxury-, Electronics- … March 2026 Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book

In March 19/32 categories inflected negatively, slightly more negative than the 18/32 negative in February (despite increased inflation as driver of incremental nominal growth). We have added 2-week trend analysis (to 4- and 12-week) due to the dynamism of fuel prices. Please see attached full 100 chart, 39 page Briefing Book.

Gasoline prices are now up nearly 50% year over year — historically, +30% sustained increases hit other discretionary spending within 6-8 weeks. 

Our March spending trend positive category analysis (pace and inflection) include airlines, accommodations, auto parts, and gas stations. We note airlines and accommodations are booked in advance.

Our March spending trend negative category analysis (pace and inflection) callouts include pizza, events, luxury, consumer electronics.

Our “early  mindshare indicator” Attention Economy analysis positive callouts include CAVA, SHOO, HLT, F while negative callouts include JACK, UA, TJX.

Optimal’s Spring 2026 Luxury Summit NYC is 4/14 with brands from around the ecosystem and a discussion of wellness / longevity / luxury convergence.