Consumer Discretionary November Briefing Book – 19/30 Sectors Decel

By David Schick and Jonathan Feeney and David Katzman and Jack Hermann Published on November 18, 2025 PDF

Please see the full attached 44-page Briefing Book.

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Softer discretionary trends continue in November … we note overall softness as monitored in our Monday Macro and real-time decel in 19 of 30 proprietary Optimal subsector tracking (slightly less drag than 26/30 last month): positive inflections in apparel spending and e-commerce transactions… versus negative inflections in luxury and home improvement spending (home has reversed recently) … see pp 11-23

Optimal Multifactor Macro Market Model, incorporating 12 lagged consumer macroeconomic factors we track … pp 4

Optimal’s Attention Economy monitor callouts: we screen over 1000 companies across consumer and note positive mindshare trends paired with positive spending trends at legacy apparel brands LEVI, PUMA, and Carhartt (among others). Gen-Z mindshare growth continuing to increase for beauty & apparel brands (ULTA, AEO) … see pp 5-7

Our macroeconomic consumer callouts include: (a) Consumer Sentiment and expectations are down significantly y/y (similar to GFC levels) … pp 40-41 (b) discretionary stocks turning higher and outperforming staples since June, short interest continuing to trend lower … pp 32-34 (c) 43-day government shutdown has ended; our analysis of precedent discretionary names have tended to outperform staples names 3 months after the end of the shutdown relative to the month prior to the shutdown … pp 36

Optimal Cons Discr Briefing Book Nov 25 Download

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