Input Costs +2.1% w/w, +5.6% y/y. CPG Algo Reset on Energy Starting with Midyear Fiscals. Small Pockets of Tailwinds Remain. HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+, PG-, CLX-, EPC-, CPB-, GIS-

By Jonathan Feeney and David Schick and David Katzman and Jack Hermann Published on April 24, 2026 PDF

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor increased this week (+2.1% w/w) as steady tailwinds from softs, sweeteners, and proteins are overwhelmed (now +5.6% y/y having been down ~-12% y/y in February) by stacking packaging and energy impacts from the Iran war. The level is manageable, the whiplash for many CPG leaders funding tactical price reductions is not so manageable.

Cost tailwinds to watch: Softs/Sweeteners down -27.0% y/y, Meats/Proteins -24.3% y/y, HSY -26.0% y/y, LW -12.8% y/y, MDLZ -7.0% y/y. See Fig 1.

Cost headwinds to watch: Packaging +22.9% y/y, PG +23.7% y/y, CLX +23.0% y/y, EPC +20.0% y/y, Energy/Freight +17.1% y/y. See Fig 1.

Oil up +14% w/w after scheduled ceasefire expires. Commodity cost inputs remain uneven, with packaging costs accelerating sharply while proteins and softs provide selective relief. Packaging (+22.9% y/y), Oils/Oilseeds (+14.4% y/y), and Energy/Freight (+17.1% y/y) are all input cost categories moving persistently higher. See Fig 5-8.

Higher energy costs & shipping risk are implicitly an immediate tax on everything: Within COGS, they drive the cost of packaging (esp. aluminum), inbound & outbound freight as well as farm level costs (diesel, fertilizer) that are key to plantings, supply & future food inputs. Within SG&A, they drive delivery costs. They also threaten revenue with more consumer budget constraints. We monitor weekly performance of key equity indices and macro indicators. See Fig 11.

Cost Factor +2.1% w/w, +5.6% y/y (vs. prior week +1.0% w/w & +3.9% y/y). The unexpected whiparound in energy costs force a wholesale rethink of staples algorithms — starting with midyear fiscal reporters. Spot energy inputs remain significantly elevated but lower relative to the start of the conflict.(notable Bunker Fuel +79% ytd, but down -24% m/m; Diesel flat w/w, and up 60% ytd).

In this weekly note, we identify spot input costs’ putative impact on the U.S. fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) value chain, most measurably impacting staples, staples retailers, restaurants & food service. Optimal’s proprietary cost factor weights ticker & sector specific cost trends using a proprietary formula based on 32 trackable spot cost inputs – 23 of which are updated as of last night, the other 9 are latest available.

Figure 1: Weekly Cost Factor Summary

Sources: Optimal Advisory Proprietary Analysis, Bloomberg, FRED, USDA, BEA

Figure 2: Weekly Cost Factor Margin Context

Sources: Optimal Advisory Proprietary Analysis, Bloomberg, FRED, USDA, BEA

Figure 3: Weekly Input Commodity Performance by Group

Sources: Optimal Advisory Proprietary Analysis, Bloomberg, FRED, USDA, BEA

Figure 4: Biggest Input Cost Movers y/y

Sources: Optimal Advisory Proprietary Analysis, Bloomberg, FRED, USDA, BEA

Figure 5: Food Sector Cost Factor

Sources: Optimal Advisory Proprietary Analysis, Bloomberg, FRED, USDA, BEA

Figure 6: Beverage Sector Cost Factor

Sources: Optimal Advisory Proprietary Analysis, Bloomberg, FRED, USDA, BEA

Figure 7: HPC Sector Cost Factor

Sources: Optimal Advisory Proprietary Analysis, Bloomberg, FRED, USDA, BEA

Figure 8: Restaurant Level Cost Factor

Sources: Optimal Advisory Proprietary Analysis, Bloomberg, FRED, USDA, BEA

Figure 9: Restaurant Employment Cost Index

Sources: Optimal Advisory Proprietary Analysis, Bloomberg, FRED, USDA, BEA

Figure 10: Staples Sector Theme Box

Figure 11: Market Sector Performance

Sources: Optimal Advisory Proprietary Analysis, Bloomberg

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