Mainstream Grocers Up, Restaurant Transactions Down, Cost Tailwinds & More … Feb 2026 Consumer Staples Briefing Book

Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts. 

February real-time spending is moderating as 10/18 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors now inflecting positively (compared to 17/18 inflecting positively last month); we note: positive inflection in mainstream grocers, broadline retail, and luxury versus negative inflection for meal delivery and fast food. Mainstream grocery is now gaining spend share versus premium & other formats… See pp 5-12.

We see 5 winning Staples themes, in order: 

AI Resilience.  Staples companies are a net winner from the medium & long-term implications of AI deployment…even unemployment!   

Protein. The surest winner in food, with health, digital attention & GLP-1 as drivers. HRL+, JBS+

Cost Tailwinds.  Our prop weighted input cost measure is down sharply (-12.6%) y/y – a key tailwind for CPG, Foodservice & Restaurants; a key headwind for retailer comp.  HSY+, CMG+, HRL+, LW+, KR-, ACI-

Flavorings & Seasonings.  Food stress demands upstream reformulation & seasonings won’t be as pressured as food.   IFF+, KRYAY+

Mindful Indulgence:  We believe state indulgent occasions (sweets, alcohol) will hold up better than expectations.  MICC+, HSY+, BFB+ 

Callouts from our proprietary Optimal Cost Factor (which incorporates 30 + cost inputs) is down (-12.6% y/y) … Leading beneficiaries of current cost relief include HSY, LW, MDLZ & Wing Restaurants… See p 14.

Staples starting 2026 outperforming discretionary & the broader market (See p 26). We monitor fundamentals of the largest staples names (See p 20-23). Consumer sentiment deceleration is slowing, but remains worse at the lower-income end… See p 35-38.

Our upcoming virtual client meetings, contact us with questions:

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