Negative Inflection for All Spending Cohorts, Costs Squeeze CPG & Retailer Comp, Restaurant Spend Hurting, GLP-1 Effects Surprising. July Consumer Staples Briefing Book

By Jonathan Feeney and David Schick and David Katzman and Jack Hermann Published on July 30, 2026 PDF

Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts.

Virtually All July Real Time Spend Segments Inflecting Negatively Y/Y. 18/19 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors inflecting negatively (< 100bp, after 15/19 inflecting negatively last month). Mainstream grocery lagging, dollar & club spending growth remains positive as premium also looks more insulated… See pp 5-12.

Costs Hard on CPG Even as Perimeter Hurts Retailer Comp. For the year, costs are up on energy and packaging as oil again approaches $100/barrel. More importantly, costs are up sharply (~15%+) since February updates, leaving CPG companies scrambling for a 2027 narrative. Ironically, deflation in key perishables categories (dairy, eggs, meats ex beef) is hurting the comp outlook for food retailers (e.g. eggs @ ACI this week) even as costs rise broadly. The Optimal Cost Factor (which incorporates 30 + cost inputs) is elevated (+5.5% y/y, was down ~12% y/y in February). Remaining beneficiaries of current cost relief include HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+ & Wing Restaurants+… See p 14.

Foodservice & Grocery Pressured at Same Time – WTF (where’s the food)? While restaurant spending reflects consumer austerity, there’s no sign of positive spending inflection the grocery channel. How? One answer shown in our work is that affluent households adopting GLP-1 at greater rates are creating an unusual volume/mix issue for both the mainstream & premium grocery channels.

Staples Stock Performance Tops Discretionary. Staples continues to outperform discretionary in a defensive rotation as sells off intensify in some tech sectors (See p 26). We monitor fundamentals of the largest staples names… See pp 20-23

OA Consumer Staples Deck July 2026 Download

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