(Not Just Another) Macro Monday – Last Week the Low End Slope Worsened More Than High End

By David Schick and Jonathan Feeney and David Katzman and Jack Hermann Published on November 3, 2025 PDF

Optimal Advisory Macro Monday 11/3/25 – Low End Slope Worse

Optimal Advisory Consumer Velo softened last week. Shorter-term spending trends decelerated last week and are now over 1 standard deviation below average since the start of 2022, running up +1.2% y/y. Longer-term spending is running up +2.5% y/y, leading to a shorter vs. longer-term inflection of -1.3% y/y (0.6 standard deviations below average). See Fig 1-2.

Optimal Advisory Premium & Value Monitor both decelerated last week, but with a sharper slowdown in Value. We use a combination of consumer spending and psychographic monitoring. Optimal’s premium monitor is running up +2.3% y/y on a T12W basis, running 2.2% below the value monitor (0.8 standard deviations below average), which is running up +4.4% y/y over the same timeframe (+1 standard deviations above average since 2022). See Fig 3-6.

Housing kinetic energy was largely stable last week. US 30Y FRM rate is running flat y/y. Inventory available for sale continues to run up +15% y/y but has decelerated from +30% y/y in May of this year. Median Home prices are running up +1.0% y/y (1.2 standard deviations below average since 2020, as home prices have averaged +5.8% y/y growth), consistent with recent trends. See Fig 7-10.

Gas Prices are nearing flat y/y against lower price comparisons. Gas prices ran down -2.5% y/y on a T4W y/y basis and declined -3.3% y/y on a T12W y/y basis, corresponding to a +0.8% y/y inflection between shorter and longer-term trends (0.1 standard deviations above average). Gas prices have been running as much as -10% y/y in 1H24 and 1H25, serving as 20-40 bp spending tailwind as it represents about 3-4% of household spending. See Fig 11-12.

Consumer Sentiment is substantially lower y/y, worse amongst high-income. Headline sentiment has declined -20% y/y on both a T3M (1.6 standard deviations below average) and T9M (2.0 standard deviations below average) basis. Upper-third income sentiment has declined -25% y/y on a T3M basis (1.8 standard deviations below average) and -26% y/y on a T9M basis (2.2 standard deviations below average). See Fig 13-16.

Optimal Advisory’s Wealth Effect Index remains positive – bolstering the high end. Optimal Advisory’s Wealth Effect Index is currently at 15.0% y/y (0.4 standard deviations above its mean value since the start of 2022), up from 7.6% y/y in May. See Fig 17-20.

In this weekly note, we focus on key changes in consumer real-time dynamics. We also measure how “non-normal” current dynamics are, relative to historic patterns. See Fig 21 for sector market performance.

Figures 1-2: Optimal Advisory Consumer Velocity Monitor

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Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Figures 3-6: Optimal Advisory Premium vs Value Monitor

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Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure, Google Trends

Optimal Advisory Premium vs Value Indices Relative to Historical Averages

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Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure, Google Trends

Figures 7-10: Housing Kinetic Energy

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Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Redfin

Mortgage Rates, For Sale Inventory, & Median List Price Y/Y Relative to Historical Averages (Since 2020)

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Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Redfin

Figures 11-12: Gas Prices Y/Y

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Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Gas Prices Y/Y Relative to Historical Averages (Since 1992)

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Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Figures 13-16: Consumer Sentiment T3M and T9M Y/Y

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, University of Michigan Consumer Survey

Sentiment Y/Y by Income Tercile Relative to Historical Averages

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, University of Michigan Consumer Survey

Comparison of Sentiment Y/Y Across Income Terciles

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Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, University of Michigan Consumer Survey

Figures 17-20: Wealth Effect

Wealth Effect Index & Components

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Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg , Zillow, Redfin,

Median Home Price Y/Y, S&P 500 Y/Y, & Wealth Effect Index (Since 2022)

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AI-generated content may be incorrect. Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg, Zillow, Redfin

Figure 21: Index & Sector Performance A screenshot of a graph

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Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg, prices intraday 11/3/2025

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