Optimal Advisory Macro Monday 11/10/25 – Latest Analysis Shows Further Softening / Premium Monitor Sharpest Decline / Context on 4th Sentiment Drop this Magnitude Since 1980)

By David Schick and Jonathan Feeney and David Katzman and Jack Hermann Published on November 10, 2025 PDF

Optimal Advisory Consumer Velo continues to soften. Shorter-term spending trends further slowed last week and are now 1.2 standard deviations below average since the start of 2022, running up +1.0% y/y (this metric was running +3-4% just two months ago). Longer-term trend is running up +1.9% y/y, leading to a shorter vs. longer-term inflection of -0.9% (0.4 standard deviations below average).  See Fig 1-2.

Optimal Advisory Premium Monitor has a sharper decline slope than Value Monitor.  We use a combination of consumer spending and psychographic monitoring. Optimal’s premium monitor is running down -1.1% y/y on a T4W basis and up +1.0% y/y on a T12W basis, running 3.4% (-0.9 standard deviations below average) and 2.1% (-0.8 standard deviations below average) respectively below the value monitor, which is running up +2.3% y/y on a T4W basis and +3.1% y/y on a T12W basis. See Fig 3-6.

Housing kinetic energy remained largely stable last week as mortgage rates have moved lower. US 30Y FRM rate is running down -27bps y/y on a T4W basis. Inventory available for sale continues to run up +15% y/y but has decelerated from +30% y/y in May of this year. Median home prices are running up +1.2% y/y (1.1 standard deviations below average since 2020), consistent with recent trends. See Fig 7-10.

Gas Prices are slightly declining (and at a fairly consistent pace).  Gas prices ran down -2.1% y/y on a T4W y/y basis and declined -2.4% y/y on a T12W y/y basis, corresponding to a +0.4% inflection between shorter and longer-term trends (approximately average relative to historical trends). See Fig 11-12.

Consumer Sentiment is substantially lower y/y; shorter-term sentiment is falling sharply across income terciles – just the 4^th time this magnitude of y/y pullback has occurred since 1980. Headline sentiment has declined -25% y/y on a T3M basis (2.1 standard deviations below average) and -22% y/y on a T9M basis (also 2.1 standard deviations below average). Upper-third income sentiment has declined -28% y/y on a T3M basis (2.0 standard deviations below average), middle-income sentiment has declined -25% y/y on a T3M basis (2.0 standard deviations below average), and lower-income sentiment has declined -25% y/y on a T3M basis as well (2.2 standard deviations below average). See Fig 13-16.

Optimal Advisory’s Wealth Effect Index remains positive at a fairly consistent pace. Optimal Advisory’s Wealth Effect Index is currently at 14.7% y/y (0.4 standard deviations above its mean value since the start of 2022). See Fig 17-20.

In this weekly note, we focus on key changes in consumer real-time dynamics. We also measure how “non-normal” current dynamics are, relative to historic patterns. See Fig 21 for sector market performance 

Figures 1-2: Optimal Advisory Consumer Velocity Monitor

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Consumer Spending y/y Relative to Historical Average

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Figures 3-6: Optimal Advisory Premium vs Value Monitor

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure, Google Trends

Optimal Advisory Premium vs Value Indices Relative to Historical Averages

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure, Google Trends

Figures 7-10: Housing Kinetic Energy

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Redfin

Mortgage Rates, For Sale Inventory, & Median List Price y/y Relative to Historical Averages (Since 2020)

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Redfin

Figures 11-12: Gas Prices y/y

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Gas Prices y/y Relative to Historical Averages (Since 1992)

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Figures 13-16: Consumer Sentiment T3M and T9M y/y

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, University of Michigan Consumer Survey

Sentiment y/y by Income Tercile Relative to Historical Averages

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, University of Michigan Consumer Survey

Comparison of Sentiment y/y Across Income Terciles

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, University of Michigan Consumer Survey

Figures 17-20: Wealth Effect

Wealth Effect Index & Components

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg , Zillow, Redfin

Median Home Price y/y, S&P 500 y/y, & Wealth Effect Index (Since 2022)

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg, Zillow, Redfin

Figure 21: Index & Sector Performance

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg, prices intraday 11/10/2025

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