Snacking: Opportunity & Trade Up More Evident Than Price Pressure – Report from the Front Lines.
Last Friday, we hosted LOVE CORN Co-Founder Gavin McCloskey for a 30-minute Report from the Snacking Front Line. In our view, it is a well-positioned disruptor in the salty snack market at a pivotal time. We discussed the growth of LOVE CORN, recent competitive developments in snacking (including PEP’s recent price reduction), a major retailer’s recent shift towards growth from value in the category, and the overall consumer backdrop.
LOVE CORN is pioneering “Premium Crunchy Corn” between Frito and Planters. Presently, a white space in their niche of the US snack market (Hormel’s Corn Nuts is positioned differently), the product combines several of the best aspects of the nut and chip categories. It is currently in an impressive ~20,000 stores with just1.8% US household penetration and a long-term goal of 20–30%. Founded in 2016 with a mission to become the “feel good” crunchy snack alternative, LOVE CORN is among the fastest growing new snack brands in the USA and UK.
No major discernable impact from FL price reductions. While the competitive landscape remains fierce, management has noticed no major change since PEP announced a significant net price reduction and concurrent distribution gains. Clearly, we see evidence that others (UTZ, CPB) may not have been so lucky. We think LOVE CORN’s higher end niche positioning is helping relative to peers.
At least one top 5 retailer has shifted their snacking focus in the last 6 to 9 months to higher value emerging brands from value & private label. We note that retailer’s recent shift is part of an effort to court affluent households with school age children that support a higher basket consumer with higher impulse spend. We also think LOVE CORN’s positioning overlaps better with GLP-1 adopters – an important relative volume driver in the months ahead.
Limited evidence of trade down, but macro remains a watchpoint. While LOVE CORN’s premium consumer seems to be largely insulated from inflation pressures, the recent tariff uncertainty and broader economic caution have potential to make an impact. They just aren’t yet.