Spending Decel, Shutdown Blues, Cost Relief Ahead — October Staples Briefing Book

By Jonathan Feeney and David Schick and David Katzman and Jack Hermann Published on October 30, 2025 PDF

October real-time spending is softening across 16/18 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors, we also note: strong spending growth for grocery & meal delivery… versus sharp drop in club spending and premium grocery transaction growth not translating as much to mainstream grocery. Premium grocery is still outpacing mainstream, but less so. see pp 5-12. We suggest the direct & indirect effects of the ongoing government shutdown likely impacting spending across both higher and lower income stratum.

Half of companies in Optimal Cost Factor (which incorporates 29 cost inputs) seeing spot costs at 12 month lows… see p 17. Meats/proteins with higher cost pressures y/y while softs/sweets with softening spot cost pressures in shorter term directly translating to HSY, LW, MDLZ, KDP … See p 14.

SNAP drama the latest shutdown risk. According to a current message on the USDA website with respect to SNAP; “the well has run dry. At this time, there will be no benefits issued November 1.” We still see several potential off ramps to this impasse, but this is an escalation. We note SNAP is the largest federal food aid program and likely comprises $95 billion or roughly 8.7% of food at home spending today.

OA CS Deck October 2025 Download

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