The Optimal Sports Section: Weekly Analysis, News of Note, Performance Updates & Games of the Week, NKE+, PTON+, GOLF-, Boxing & Skiing Digital Attention Inflecting Positively

By David Katzman and David Schick and Jonathan Feeney and Jack Hermann Published on March 11, 2026 PDF

The Optimal Sports Ecosystem revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran up +2.1% y/y, continuing its positive but decelerating trend that is still stronger than late 4Q ’25 and early 1Q ’26. Fandom cohort spending, which had been running up +5.8% T8W y/y last week, is only up +0.8% this week due to a particularly rough week for ticketing companies. Participation cohort spend trend is weak but still outperforming longer-term trend. Betting cohort spend trend is positive but has decelerated for the 5th consecutive week. See charts below.
Spending trends are strong for most fitness brands (PTON, LTH, XPOF all running up at least +10% or more y/y and PLNT nearly flat).

Boxing, winter sports, & water sports are the most positively inflecting digital traffic categories.

Early indicator NKE trends we monitor continue to improve, including among Gen Z despite macro headwinds; we note greatest positive inflections in both spending and foot traffic for PTON and greatest negative inflections in both spending and digital traffic for GOLF.

The Sports Fandom Index has performed in-line with most benchmarks over the past week, while the Sports Participation and Betting & Data Indices have underperformed most benchmarks.

We are hosting a client meeting (virtual) on the Sports Betting Ecosystem on 3/20 with Danny Funt, author of bestseller Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling. Danny has written for The Wall Street Journal, The New Yorker, The Washington Post, and others. Register Here

Headlines

Headline: Two U.S. Senators have introduced a bill that would allow colleges to pool their media rights in broadcast negotiations.
- Takeaway: The objective is to generate additional revenue for college sports, and additional goals include protecting women’s and Olympic sports by ensuring teams and scholarships won’t be cut, ensuring out of market fans can watch their teams, and guaranteeing that college sports media cannot be paywalled in local markets. This could have an impact both on maintaining the growth of emerging sports and on broadcasters.
- Link: Cantwell, Schmitt Join Forces on Draft Bill to Generate More Revenue for College Sports

Headline: Fox has had its strongest men’s college basketball viewership numbers ever (up 38% year over year) and its second-best women’s college basketball viewership numbers ever, while CBS had its best college basketball viewership numbers in seven years.
- Takeaway: Sports viewership continues to increase as media rights deals continue to increase in value, which drives valuation growth both for sports teams and for broadcasters.
- Link: Fox hits new college hoops season record; CBS best in seven years
Headline: A group of investors including Magic Johnson is hoping to bring an expansion NBA team to Las Vegas.
- Takeaway: Among many key discussion points recently within the NBA has been the idea of expansion, and Las Vegas and Seattle have been two of the most discussed potential locations. Following the success of other teams that have recently either been relocated to Las Vegas or newly created, an expansion to Las Vegas could be a significant boost for the NBA and its partners.
- Link: Lakers Legend Magic Johnson Pursues Ownership in NBA Team – Athlon Sports

Games of the Week:

THE PLAYERS Championship (March 12th – 15th, 2026): Known as golf’s unofficial “5th major”, the best golfers in the world such as 2x winner and defending champion Rory McIlroy and 2x winner Scottie Scheffler (each of whom will have the chance to tie Jack Nicklaus’s record of 3 wins) will converge to TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida tomorrow for the start of one of the most anticipated events on the golf calendar.

World Baseball Classic Finals (March 17th, 2026 @ 8:00 PM EST): Next Tuesday is the finals of the World Baseball Classic, an already exciting tournament made even more unpredictable by a potential early U.S. exit (pending the results of today’s Italy vs. Mexico showdown).

Selection Sunday (March 15th, 2026 @ 6:00 PM EST for Men’s Tournament and 8:00 PM EST for Women’s Tournament) and First Four (March 17th – 18th, 2026): March Madness begins this weekend with Selection Sunday and the First Four games, kicking off three weeks of nonstop entertainment and upsets with Michigan (+300), Duke (+340), Arizona (+550), and Florida (+600) as the favorites on the men’s side, and UConn (-290) as a heavy favorite to repeat on the women’s side.

Stat Spotlight – Wilt Chamberlain, Bam Adebayo, Kobe Bryant

Unless you are a Wizards fan like I am or a Heat fan, you would be forgiven if you did not cancel your plans to put on last night’s matchup between the 16-47 Wizards and the 36-29 Heat, but by the end of the game basketball fans everywhere tuned in to watch history. Bam Adebayo scored 30 of his eventual 83 points in the first quarter to turn in the second highest scoring NBA performance of all time beyond Wilt Chamberlain’s famous 100-point outing (who completed five of the top nine scoring performances of all time in a two-year span). Bam’s FG% ended under 50%, but he notably took 43 free throws, the most in a game all time (surpassing Dwight Howard’s 39 FTA in a game in 2012).

One other stat that stands out from the chart below is Luka Doncic’s staggering 91% true shooting percentage in his 73-point game. True shooting percentage is a stat that, while hard to compare across generations without adjusting for league average due to the advent and popularity of the three-point shot as well as other rule changes (including legal defense), is generally a strong measure of scoring efficiency.

Highest Scoring NBA Games of All Time

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Basketball Reference

Optimal Sports Ecosystem & Sectors Analysis

Optimal Sports Ecosystem Revenue Trackers

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index Revenue Tracker

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Optimal Sports Betting & Data Index Revenue Tracker

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Optimal Sports Fandom Index Revenue Tracker

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Optimal Sports Participation Index Revenue Tracker

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Spending, Digital Traffic, & Foot Traffic Inflections (T8W vs. T16W)

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure, Similarweb, Placer.ai

Online Traffic vs. Card Spending Growth

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure, Similarweb

Top Twitter & News Sentiment Monthly Gainers and Declines

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Twitter Sentiment vs. News Sentiment Monthly Change

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Sports Category Digital Inflections

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Similarweb

Optimal Sports Highlight – NKE Continues Gen Z Improvement

NKE’s data is improving despite headwinds including the reimposition of tariffs and pressures in China. Our Gen Z Attention Economy Monitor, which monitors how Gen Z consumers interact digitally with individual brands, continues to improve for NKE. This metric, which had been running negative throughout 2025 (and at times highly negative), inflected positively last month (+2% y/y) and continued to rise in February (+5% y/y). Meanwhile, Optimal’s News & Social Sentiment Monitor also turned positive for NKE in recent months for the first time since early-mid 2023 (we note that February was less positive than January).

Gen Z Attention Economy Monitor

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Similarweb

NKE News & Social Sentiment Monitor

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Optimal’s In-Store Monitor and Online Monitor for NKE have both historically tracked the share price, although this relationship has broken down recently. Optimal’s In-Store Monitor has improved relative to last week, while Optimal’s Online Monitor remained flat but elevated.

NKE In-Store Monitor vs. Share Price

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Placer.ai, Bloomberg

NKE Online Monitor vs. Share Price

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Similarweb, Bloomberg

We also note improving online traffic trends for both lifestyle brands as a whole and more specifically for fashion and apparel brands, as traffic growth is both improving and accelerating (growth was also +19% T3M y/y last month).

Online Traffic to Fashion & Apparel Websites is Improving and Accelerating

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Similarweb

Optimal took a trip this past weekend to Foot Locker for the Air Jordan 4 “Lakeshow” Drop (Click here for a summary of our trip).

Equity Performance

Index & Sector Performance

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg, prices at market close 3/11/2026

Valuation Snapshots

Optimal Sports Betting & Data Index Components Valuation Snapshot

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Optimal Sports Fandom Index Components Valuation Snapshot

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Optimal Sports Participation Index Components Valuation Snapshot

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

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