The Optimal Sports Section: Weekly Performance, Your Bracket Solved with Optimal Math, News of Note, NKE International Analysis, PTON+, CALY+, LUCK-, GOLF-, GRMN-

By David Katzman and David Schick and Jonathan Feeney and Jack Hermann Published on March 18, 2026 PDF

The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran up +1% y/y, decelerated from +2% last year, but 200 bps above the 16-week trend. Within that index, Sports Fandom’s 8-week spending trend is flat y/y, Sports Participation spending is down -3%, while Sports Betting spending is up +5%.

NKE’s overall and ex. US digital traffic continues to improve despite widely known company headwinds internationally, especially in China (see chart below).

PTON (+): Spending is both improving and accelerating while foot traffic is also accelerating.

CALY (+): Spending growth leads measured brands and digital traffic is up nearly 20% y/y.

LUCK (-): Spending is down nearly -20% y/y and digital traffic is down nearly -10% – both decelerating recently.

GOLF (-): Spending is down -30% y/y and we note bad weather — with T8W trends sharply (-3700 bps) decelerating vs T16W y/y spending, with digital traffic is down-12% over the same timeframe; Twitter sentiment is also down -13% m/m.

GRMN (-): Spending is down -17% y/y and digital traffic is down -6% y/y, while Twitter and news sentiment are each down nearly -10% y/y.

The Sports Fandom Index’s equity performance has improved slightly over the last week while the Sports Betting & Data’s equity performance has declined slightly but less so than benchmark indices. The Sports Participation Index’s equity performance has underperformed benchmark indices over the past week.

We are hosting a client meeting (virtual) on the Sports Betting Ecosystem this Friday 3/20 with Danny Funt, author of Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling, a bestseller in Sports on Amazon. Danny has written for The Wall Street Journal, The New Yorker, The Washington Post, and others. Register Here

Headlines

Headline: The NFL and Kraft Heinz have signed a five-year deal to make Kraft Heinz the official condiment partner of the NFL.
- Takeaway: The NFL and Kraft Heinz’s partnership is another example of the Sports Ecosystem’s importance beyond just the world of sports, as Kraft Heinz will get premium branding at and around stadiums and access to some international games.
- Link: NFL signs Kraft Heinz as official condiment partner

Headline: FIFA has announced that YouTube will be a Preferred Platform for the 2026 World Cup.
- Takeaway: The partnership represents a further step in expanding the methods of consumption of sports content in the social media and digital age, providing fans and Media Partners more ways to interact with the tournament and each other.
- Link: FIFA and YouTube team up in game-changing FIFA World Cup 2026™ Preferred Platform agreement

Headline: The Los Angeles Dodgers have reportedly agreed to sell the naming rights to Dodger Stadium to Uniqlo.
- Takeaway: As sponsorship revenues continue to increase, the Dodgers have for the first time in the stadium’s 64 year-history agreed to attach a corporate sponsorship to the field name.
- Link: Dodgers reportedly agree to deal with Uniqlo for naming rights to Dodger Stadium field

Optimal’s March Madness Bracket

With March Madness starting, we launch our Optimal bracket, based on our work with inflection. We used a combination of well-known expert ratings (TeamRankings, KenPom, EvanMiya) and inflections in recent performance (last 5 vs. last 10 games based on TeamRankings). Teams such as Iowa St., Vanderbilt, and UCLA received a boost from strong recent performances while teams such as Duke and Michigan have not performed as well in their past 5 games.

Optimal March Madness Bracket & Top 20 March Madness Team Rankings

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, TeamRankings, KenPom, EvanMiya, ESPN

Games of the Week (Beyond March Madness):

Madrid Derby – Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid (March 22nd @ 4:00 PM EST): Second place Real Madrid, currently four points behind first place Barcelona, look to keep their La Liga title hopes alive as they face third place Atlético Madrid.
MLB Opening Night – San Francisco Giants vs. New York Yankees (March 25th @ 8:05 PM EST): As the World Baseball Classic comes to an end, the MLB season kicks off next Wednesday as two of baseball’s most storied franchises face off in San Francisco in the first ever regular season MLB game exclusively streamed on Netflix.

Optimal Sports Ecosystem & Sectors Analysis

Optimal Sports Ecosystem Revenue Trackers

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index Revenue Tracker

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Optimal Sports Betting & Data Index Revenue Tracker

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Optimal Sports Fandom Index Revenue Tracker

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Optimal Sports Participation Index Revenue Tracker

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Spending, Digital Traffic, & Foot Traffic Inflections (T8W vs. T16W)

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure, Similarweb, Placer.ai

Online Traffic vs. Card Spending Growth

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure, Similarweb

Top Twitter & News Sentiment Monthly Gainers and Declines

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Twitter Sentiment vs. News Sentiment Monthly Change

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Sports Category Digital Inflections

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Similarweb

Optimal Sports Highlight – Adding NKE International Analysis to our Domestic Trackers

Despite some headwinds for NKE, including the reimposition of tariffs as well as pressures in China, we are still seeing improving trends in NKE’s global attention economy trends, although trends have begun to level off.

NKE International Global Attention Economy Trends (T16W Y/Y)

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg, Similarweb

Our Gen Z Attention Economy Monitor, which monitors how Gen Z consumers interact digitally with individual brands, continues to improve for NKE. This metric, which had been running negative throughout 2025 (and at times highly negative), inflected positively last month (+2% y/y) and continued to rise in February (+5% y/y). Meanwhile, Optimal’s News & Social Sentiment Monitor also turned positive for NKE in recent months for the first time since early-mid 2023 (we note that February was less positive than January).

Gen Z Attention Economy Monitor

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Similarweb

NKE News & Social Sentiment Monitor

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Optimal’s In-Store Monitor and Online Monitor for NKE have both historically tracked the share price; however, this relationship has broken down recently as in-store and online trends have improved while share price has continued to decline. Optimal’s In-Store Monitor and Online Monitors have both decelerated relative to recent weeks but are both still outperforming late-2025 trends.

NKE In-Store Monitor vs. Share Price

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Placer.ai, Bloomberg

NKE Online Monitor vs. Share Price

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Similarweb, Bloomberg

We also note improving online traffic trends for both lifestyle brands as a whole and more specifically for fashion and apparel brands, as traffic growth is both improving and accelerating (growth was also +19% T3M y/y last month).

Online Traffic to Fashion & Apparel Websites is Improving and Accelerating

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Similarweb

Equity Performance

Index & Sector Performance

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg, prices at market close 3/18/2026

Valuation Snapshots

Optimal Sports Betting & Data Index Components Valuation Snapshot

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Optimal Sports Fandom Index Components Valuation Snapshot

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Optimal Sports Participation Index Components Valuation Snapshot

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

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