The Optimal Sports Section: Weekly Trend Analyses, Performance Updates, Stats & Games of the Week

By David Katzman and David Schick and Jonathan Feeney and Jack Hermann Published on February 18, 2026 PDF

The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran up +2.7% y/y and is positive for the third straight week, primarily due to increased spending at Ticketmaster. We note positive rate-of-change, see charts below.
Spending trend analysis is positive for our sports betting & data subsectors but softer for large apparel brands (our participation subsector).
We have had incoming questions on our NKE analysis following our launch and note our polling analysis and Gen Z trends at NKE suggest potential for improved traction, see charts below.

Headlines

Headline: MSG Sports’s board of directors approved a plan to explore a spin-off of the NBA’s New York Knicks and the NHL’s New York Rangers
- Takeaway: MSG is currently valued far below the combined valuation of its assets. This spin-off could increase valuations by allowing investors to invest in each of the teams separately.
- Link: MSG Sports eyes spinoff to separate Knicks and Rangers businesses (MSGE:NYSE) | Seeking Alpha
Headline: NBA Commissioner Adam Silver says that AI will bring about the most significant change in his lifetime in how sports are presented.
- Takeaway: AI enhancements to sports broadcasts could increase personalization, viewership, and reach of sports broadcasts as other forms of live, broadcasted entertainment continue to decline
- Link: Adam Silver: AI will bring ‘most significant change’ in sports broadcasts
Headline: Kalshi reached $1bn in trading volume during the Super Bowl, up 2700% from last year, with $145m alone placed on bets about Bad Bunny’s opening song and musical guests.
- Takeaway: Kalshi and other prediction market platforms have arrived as big competitors to traditional sports betting companies.
- Link: Prediction market Kalshi reached $1bn in trading volume during Super Bowl | Business | The Guardian

Headline: 2026 Winter Olympics Viewership for the Opening Ceremony and first full day was up 60% relative to 2022.
- Takeaway: Sports viewership numbers continue to rise, which is positive news for both broadcasters and sports team valuations.
- Link: Winter Olympics 2026 TV Ratings Start Strong for NBC and Peacock

Games of the Week:

Women’s (February 19th @ 1:10 PM EST) and Men’s (February 22nd @ 8:10 AM EST) Olympic Hockey Gold-Medal Games. On the women’s side, it will be a rematch of the U.S. vs. Canada after the U.S. won the previous matchup 5-0 (Canada was without captain Marie-Philip Poulin who has since returned), while the men’s final depends on the results of the upcoming semifinal matchups.

Spring Training Begins February 20th

As spring training approaches, we look at the FanGraphs MLB Playoff Odds Projections. They project that the two-time defending champion Dodgers are the most likely team to make the playoffs after signing another marquee free agent in Kyle Tucker

Fangraphs Playoff Odds Projections

Source: Optimal Advisory analysis, FanGraphs

Optimal Sports Ecosystem & Sectors Analysis

Optimal Sports Ecosystem Revenue Trackers

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index Revenue Tracker

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Optimal Sports Betting & Data Index Revenue Tracker

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Optimal Sports Fandom Index Revenue Tracker

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Optimal Sports Participation Index Revenue Tracker

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure

Online Traffic vs. Card Spending Growth

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg Second Measure, Similarweb

Top Twitter & News Sentiment Monthly Gainers and Declines

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Twitter Sentiment vs. News Sentiment Monthly Change

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Optimal Sports Highlight – Potential Improving Trends at NKE

NKE’s share price has declined 65% since holiday 2021, but we note Optimal’s analysis shows some underlying trends are firming. Optimal’s NKE Gen Z Attention Economy traction, which was running worse than -30% y/y for much of the year, is now positive, suggesting better traction with a critical cohort.

Gen Z Attention Economy Monitor

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Similarweb

Our polling analysis also suggests NKE’s consumers getting younger. Six months ago, 6% who intended to purchase from NKE were age 18-24; now 17% of respondents belong to the same age group.

New initiatives include Nike Mind, NikeSKIMS (including the Paris pop-up), the reintroduction of Nike Golf Shield, and the Nike Therma-FIT Air Milano jacket for the US Olympic team.

NKE News & Social Sentiment Analysis

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Equity Performance

Index & Sector Performance

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg, prices at market close 2/18/2026

Valuation Snapshots

Optimal Sports Betting & Data Index Components Valuation Snapshot

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Optimal Sports Fandom Index Components Valuation Snapshot

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

Optimal Sports Participation Index Components Valuation Snapshot

Source: Optimal Advisory Analysis, Bloomberg

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