Ticket Story Compounds Impact in Discretionary (Off Price, Luxury, Home Improvement, Athleisure); “Canary in Coalmine” Traction Indicators: June 2026 Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book

Our attached 37-page Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book summarizes our updated June analysis of hundreds of public and private companies for non-normal change, examines spending and inflections by category, sentiment by ticker, early-indicator mindshare traction, and macro conditions (including ticket impact creep in June versus May) across discretionary consumer.

Summary: (1) consumer spending is pressured with 20 out of 33 measured subsectors showing negative inflection in June and transaction declines beginning to mount, even as inflation boosts average ticket (29 out of 33 subsectors with positive ticket growth – up from 24/32 a month ago); (2) standout positive categories include airlines, luxury, off-price retail, & home furnishings; (3) standout negative categories include cruises, pizza, and consumer electronics; (4) higher energy costs are an implicit tax on everything, beginning to show in macro data, and eating into incomes.