Latest Reports

June 23, 2026

Seeing What’s Working and Problematic for NKE: Nike House of Innovation, Air Force 1’s Featured at Foot Locker, But Discounted Shoe on AMZN Contradiction: This Week in Store Pics / TWISP NOTES

By David Katzman

Summary: Last week we examined what is working and not working in NKE go to market. We noted the energy and connectivity with global World Cup visitors and the brand’s highest level offering juxtaposed with…

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June 22, 2026

Housing Backdrop Key Variable Changed; Sentiment Inflection Differs by Income Strata; Spend Remains Positive with Slight Deceleration: Macro Monday

By David Schick

Summary: (1) Our math shows Consumer Velocity decelerated slightly last week which syncs up well with many of our industry conversations on tone of business, see Fig 1; (2) Housing inventory is approaching flat y/y,…

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June 18, 2026

Input Costs +1.3% w/w, +5.0% y/y, Packaging & Energy Reverse as Softs Tailwinds Ebb; HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+, EPC-, PG-

By Jonathan Feeney

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor was up slightly this week but decelerated on a y/y basis for the third straight week after accelerating for 15 consecutive weeks since the breakout of the Iranian conflict. Costs…

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June 17, 2026

MSGE (+) In Five; LULU (–); NKE Digital Traction Change Globally and in US; Our NFL Call Tomorrow: The Optimal Sports Section

By David Katzman

Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem revenue tracker remained negative at -0.8% T8W y/y; (2) Sports equity indices underperformed the broader market this week; (3) MSGE spending and digital traffic both inflected sharply higher in tandem…

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June 14, 2026

Deep Dive on Auto, Home, and Big Ticket Demand; Current Spend Holding Pattern Steady; NFL Meeting Thursday: Macro Monday on Sunday

By David Schick

Summary: (1) Autos, homes, and durable goods are sensitive to consumer perceptions of buying conditions and the selling, shipping, financing of these categories employ lots of Americans, in Chart of the Week we show that…

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June 12, 2026

Costs Ease (-1.4% w/w, +6.0% y/y), Still a Shocking +17% Since Late February Led By Energy; HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+, PG-, EPC-, CLX-

By Jonathan Feeney

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor declined again this week and decelerated on a y/y basis for just the second time since the breakout of the Iranian conflict. The factor remains a headwind (+6.0% y/y) to…

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June 11, 2026

Optimal TWISP Notes: This Week in Store Pics TGT ALDI ALO PROTEIN

By David Schick

Snapshots from our regular weekly store walks looking at execution, innovation, and merchandising includes: (1) Target new protein-water endcaps further emphasizing functional hydration; (2) we continue to discuss themes of weather swings across retail –…

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June 10, 2026

Sports Ecosystem Tracker Declines; NKE Gen Z Traffic Accelerating; News and Game of the Week; 6/18 “Every Day is Sunday” Event with Author & NYT Journalist Ken Belson: The Optimal Sports Section; ONON (+); UAA (–)

By David Katzman

Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem revenue tracker turned back negative at -1.0% T8W y/y, with Sports Betting & Data spending decelerating but remaining strong, Sports Fandom spending remaining negative but accelerating modestly, and Sports Participation…

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June 8, 2026

Ticket by Sector Intrigue from Auto Parts to Consumer Fintech; Spend Trend More Stable; Gas Prices Retreating from Highs; Wealth Effect Accelerated: Macro Monday

By David Schick

Summary: (1) We note strength in average transaction in accommodations, entertainment and outdoor recreation, gas station recedes a bit, and categories from pizza to consumer fintech (and more) remain pressured, See Chart of the Week…

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June 5, 2026

Optimal Cost Factor (-0.1% w/w, +7.4% y/y); Energy/Packaging Firm, Grains & Coffee Lower. HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+, KDP+, SBUX+, PG-, CLX-, EPC-

By Jonathan Feeney

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor decelerated (-0.1% w/w, +7.4% y/y) for the first time since the outbreak of Iran hostilities. Energy & packaging are up sharply while some tailwinds remain including softs, sweeteners, and proteins….

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June 4, 2026

CPG’s World Cup: Shots on Goal for Customer Acquisition…. Event Recap & Takeaways

By Jonathan Feeney

We sat down earlier today with Jimmy McCloud, Founder and CEO of DISTINCT Technologies for a well-attended event titled the World Cup Catalyst: Consumer Activation in the Age of Agentic AI. We discussed how the…

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June 3, 2026

Sports Spending Flat While Fandom Stocks Top Broader Market; NKE Improving Online; News & Game of the Week: The Optimal Sports Section. AS (+), PTON (–)

By David Katzman

Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem T8W revenue tracker is flat y/y led by accelerating Sports Betting & Data spending, while Sports Fandom and Sports Participation continued to decline on weak transactions (T16W revenue tracker continues…

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June 2, 2026

Restaurant Spend Hurting, Cost Whiplash Threatens CPG Outlooks – Midyear FYs At Most Risk (CPB-, GIS-, CAG-), GLP-1 Effects Surprising. June Consumer Staples Briefing Book

By Jonathan Feeney

Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts. May real-time spending pressured as 4/19 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors inflecting positively (compared to just 2/19…

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June 2, 2026

The Evolution of Customer Acquisition… CPG’s World Cup

By Jonathan Feeney

CPG companies have been forced to shift their customer acquisition playbook over the last 5 years. We survey how several leaders described the shift in their customer acquisition strategies since 2021 publicly. Notably, e-commerce has…

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June 1, 2026

Rare Spending Streak; This Week in Store Pics – DKS HD LOW WMT LIDL; Spend Muted but More Stable: Macro Monday

By David Schick

Summary: (1) We call out an economic momentum risk factor … see Chart of the Week … spending has outpaced income for 22 months in a row, this is unsustainable and only the second time…

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