Latest Reports

July 21, 2026

Relative Capex, AI Search Monetization & Gemini 3.5 Keys to GOOG Earnings

By Sanji Alwis

7 Key Issues We’re Watching Tomorrow What we would act on Three things: any change to 2026 or 2027 capex expectations, read alongside backlog and capacity commentary; Search monetization relative to AI query growth and…

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July 19, 2026

Buying Attitude Slices – Homes as the Lonely Positive Slope; Consumer Velocity Decel Notable (Discount Big Box Timing and Pull Forward Impact Likely): Macro Monday

By David Schick

Summary: (1) Our analysis of the latest buying attitudes by category points to consumers at low and worsening purchase plans except for homes, see Charts of the Week; (2) Our analysis shows spending decelerated last…

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July 17, 2026

More Conflict = Costs Higher. Inputs +0.6 w/w, +4.3% y/y; Cocoa & Coffee Ease, Grains Surge. HSY+, Wing Restaurants+, CPB-, EPC-. Optimal Cost Factor

By Jonathan Feeney

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor accelerated on a y/y basis for the second week in a row. For the year, costs are up (+4.3% y/y) primarily on energy and packaging. Deflationary softs & sweeteners have…

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July 16, 2026

TWISP Notes: This Week in Store Pics – Outlet Stores for Accessory Brands (and Coach Flagship)

By David Schick

This week we walked accessory brand outlet stores in addition to Coach’s New York 5th Avenue flagship store for contrast and to see how the major New York accessory show discounts and present in store….

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July 15, 2026

SEAT & YETI Inflections; Sports Ecosystem Tracker Flat; NKE Online Monitor at Highest Levels Since Early 2023 as In-Store Monitor Continues Rebound: The Optimal Sports Section

By David Katzman

Sports Ecosystem spending trends inflected back upwards to flat this week, our sector equity indices were mixed against the broader market, and we update our analysis on NKE across the US and globally. Summary: (1)…

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July 14, 2026

Launching Our Five Core Frameworks to Separate Winners from Losers in the “AI Changes Everything” Chorus: Optimal’s Coverage of the Technology Ecosystem 

By Sanji Alwis

One feedback loop drives the boom: chatbot hype and record user adoption, automation gains for developers, fast-growing revenue at the AI labs, and FOMO. It has lifted all three of our subsectors: Infrastructure, Software, and Tech Megacaps.  Our Five…

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July 12, 2026

Oh Good, Cyclospora (80% Jump in Consumer Concern + Names & Precedents); Consumer Velocity Decelerates; Wealth Effect Slide: Macro Monday (on Sunday)

By David Schick

Summary: (1) Cyclospora is just beginning to drive income questions on restaurant, produce, and the food supply chain, in Chart of the Week we measure the level of concerns and discuss names and precedents; (2)…

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July 10, 2026

Input Costs +2.1 w/w, +3.6% y/y with Renewed Conflict; Cocoa & Coffee Surge. Key Perishable Deflation Threatens Grocery Comp. LW+, Wing Restaurants+, EPC-, CPB-, KR-

By Jonathan Feeney

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor accelerated on a y/y basis this week after decelerating for 5 consecutive weeks. For the year, costs are only up slightly (+3.6% y/y) on energy and packaging, but still up…

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July 9, 2026

TWISP Notes: This Week in Store Pics – Proteinification at Costco, Wegmans, and Amazon

By David Schick

Highlights of our regular weekly store walks looking at execution, innovation, shelves, endcaps, and pallets. This week we tracked the proteinification of the store across three channels: Costco, Wegmans, and Amazon. Summary: (1) protein is…

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July 8, 2026

LTH & UAA Inflect; Sports Ecosystem Tracker Down but Stable; Betting Leads; NKE Digital Traffic Accelerates at Highest Levels Since 2023: The Optimal Sports Section

By David Katzman

Sports Ecosystem trends stayed slightly negative this week, our sector equity indices were mixed against a flat market, and we dive into our latest analysis on NKE across the US and globally. Summary: (1) Optimal’s…

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July 5, 2026

Gen X Woes; Consumer Velocity Stable; Borrowing Costs Stay Elevated; Wealth Effect Decelerates a Third Straight Week: Macro Monday (on Sunday)

By David Schick

Summary: (1) In our conversations with companies, we continue to hear about Gen Z and Boomer strength (and the pinch for Xers) … in Chart of the Week we highlight compelling analysis that after-tax, after-transfer…

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July 2, 2026

TWISP Notes: This Week in Store Pics – Coastal Premium Brands

By David Schick

Highlights of our regular weekly store walks looking at execution, innovation, shelves, endcaps, and pallets. This week we examine premium coastal summer brand stores. Summary: (1) La Jolla this week, a read on premium coastal…

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July 2, 2026

Input Costs -0.7% w/w, +3.4% y/y. Energy Eases, Coffee Bounces & Key Grocery Perishables Deflationary. HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+, EPC-, PG-, KR-, ACI-

By Jonathan Feeney

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor decelerated on a y/y basis for the fifth consecutive week. It had accelerated for 15 consecutive weeks after the breakout of the Iranian conflict. For the year, costs are up…

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July 1, 2026

ONON & LULU Inflections; Sports Ecosystem Tracker Stable; NKE Earnings & China Thoughts: The Optimal Sports Section

By David Katzman

Sports Ecosystem trends stayed slightly negative this week, our sector equity indices primarily underperformed, and we dive into our analysis on NKE and especially in China following yesterday’s reported earnings. Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem…

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June 30, 2026

BBY, DKS, HD, WMT, RH, LOW Callouts: Analyzing AI Traction & Growth across 109 Retailers, Brands, Travel, and Autos in June

By David Schick

In this June report, we update our work across 109 consumer names. We analyze both (a) the relative inflection of AI-driven engagement and (b) the weight of AI engagement within the mix of engagement of…

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