June 8, 2026
Summary: (1) We note strength in average transaction in accommodations, entertainment and outdoor recreation, gas station recedes a bit, and categories from pizza to consumer fintech (and more) remain pressured, See Chart of the Week…
June 5, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor decelerated (-0.1% w/w, +7.4% y/y) for the first time since the outbreak of Iran hostilities. Energy & packaging are up sharply while some tailwinds remain including softs, sweeteners, and proteins….
June 4, 2026
We sat down earlier today with Jimmy McCloud, Founder and CEO of DISTINCT Technologies for a well-attended event titled the World Cup Catalyst: Consumer Activation in the Age of Agentic AI. We discussed how the…
June 3, 2026
Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem T8W revenue tracker is flat y/y led by accelerating Sports Betting & Data spending, while Sports Fandom and Sports Participation continued to decline on weak transactions (T16W revenue tracker continues…
June 2, 2026
Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts. May real-time spending pressured as 4/19 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors inflecting positively (compared to just 2/19…
June 2, 2026
CPG companies have been forced to shift their customer acquisition playbook over the last 5 years. We survey how several leaders described the shift in their customer acquisition strategies since 2021 publicly. Notably, e-commerce has…
June 1, 2026
Summary: (1) We call out an economic momentum risk factor … see Chart of the Week … spending has outpaced income for 22 months in a row, this is unsustainable and only the second time…
May 31, 2026
Summary: (1) BBY, HD, WMT, DKS are the highest measured names in AI contribution, see Fig 1; (2) AI growth continues, but rate-of-change is now mixed across categories and companies: positive in Travel and Autos,…
May 29, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor rose this week (+1.5% w/w, +7.9% y/y) as energy and packaging costs drive higher on Iran uncertainty. Some tailwinds remain including softs, sweeteners, and proteins. We think it means 3…
May 28, 2026
Summary: Our report analyzes Gen Z traction against short positioning, traffic trend, and mix composition across 113 names: (1) TPR, SHAK, BOOT lead Gen Z traction growth (Figure 1), all three also showing rising short…
May 27, 2026
Summary: our attached 37-page Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book tracks spending, ticker-by-ticker sentiment, early-indicator mindshare traction, and macro conditions across discretionary: (1) consumer spending is mixed, with 19 out of 32 measured categories showing negative inflections…
May 27, 2026
Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem T8W revenue tracker remained positive led by accelerating Sports Betting & Data spending, while Sports Fandom and Sports Participation continued to decline on weak transactions (T16W revenue tracker was negative);…
May 26, 2026
Summary: (1) See charts of the week at the top and store pics at the end of full report – there is now real risk in the five sigma divergence between Consumer Sentiment and stock…
May 22, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor was flat this week (+7.2% y/y). Energy & packaging increases since Iran hostilities have rapidly erased late 2025/early 2026 tailwinds – an especially thorny problem for CPG companies in categories…
May 21, 2026
Earlier today, we hosted a virtual event with Michael Manzo, EVP and CFO of Winebow — a national premium wine and spirits distributor. The summer outlook for wine and spirits remains challenging, with no meaningful…