August 9, 2026
Summary: (1) We are fielding more questions from capital and corporates on how the pressured consumer is driven by broader economic trends – this week we unpack employee confidence level and change by sector throughout…
August 7, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor accelerated on y/y basis for the fifth week in a row. For the year, costs are up (+8.0% y/y, was last running down y/y in March) primarily on energy and…
August 6, 2026
We have fielded a high-level investor inquiry over the past 48 hours regarding ongoing SaaS concerns following HubSpot’s weak forward guidance delivered after Wednesday’s close and Bending Spoons’ acquisition of Airtable (see Airtable Valuation Reset,…
August 5, 2026
Sports Ecosystem spending extended its recent better trend this week even as Optimal’s subsector equity indices lagged behind a rallying market, and our latest NKE analysis points to continued improvement in digital and in-store momentum:…
August 2, 2026
Summary: (1) We have seen a jump in questions on the secular demand for auto parts – vehicle miles travelled have indeed slowed over the last few years and more sharply recently, (this is both…
July 31, 2026
The latest earnings from Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon provide unusually clean tests of the core frameworks we launched in our initial report. All three companies reported strong growth in businesses where AI is already embedded…
July 31, 2026
Summary: (1) BBY, MAR, HD, MLKN are the highest measured names in AI importance, see Fig 1; (2) AI inflections are positive across all four categories (Travel, Autos, Retail, Apparel), see Fig 2; (3) MAR,…
July 31, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor decelerated -2.2% w/w but remain up +6.9% y/y and roughly +15% off February pre-conflict lows driven by energy and packaging. Softening from oilseeds, dairy, and grains supported easing costs this…
July 30, 2026
Highlights of our regular weekly store visits. We visited New Balance & Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) retail locations for a mid-summer athleisure & sporting goods review. DKS does a great job setting floor space for…
July 30, 2026
Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts. Virtually All July Real Time Spend Segments Inflecting Negatively Y/Y. 18/19 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors inflecting…
July 29, 2026
Sports Ecosystem spending trends built on recent momentum this week, our sector equity indices broadly gained against a declining market, and our latest NKE analysis finds improvement across channels. Summary: (1) Sports Ecosystem revenue tracker…
July 29, 2026
3 Key Issues We’re Watching Thursday What we would act on Three keys: (1) revisions to the ~$200bn 2026 capex plan and any 2027 framing, relative to sequential FCF trend; (2) the composition of the…
July 28, 2026
3 Key Issues We’re Watching Wednesday What we would act on Three things: (1) revisions to the $125-145bn capex range, relative to sequential FCF trend; (2) the ad engine’s revenue & margin progression including price-versus-impression…
July 26, 2026
Summary: (1) We explain how decoupled jobless claims are now from reality and which metro markets have momentum and pressure (see Charts of the Week); (2) Our math shows Consumer Velocity continuing to decel sharply…
July 24, 2026
In this note we show findings of our regular store visits. We visited the Tiffany’s 5th Avenue flagship in NYC which reopened in 2Q23 after a four-year renovation. The project was the first full building…