Latest Reports

June 29, 2026

Ticket Story Compounds Impact in Discretionary (Off Price, Luxury, Home Improvement, Athleisure); “Canary in Coalmine” Traction Indicators: June 2026 Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book

By David Schick

Our attached 37-page Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book summarizes our updated June analysis of hundreds of public and private companies for non-normal change, examines spending and inflections by category, sentiment by ticker, early-indicator mindshare traction, and…

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June 28, 2026

Income’s 9 or 13 Year Event; Wealth Effect Ends 11 Week Streak; Consumer Velo Soft and with Decel: Macro Monday (on Sunday)

By David Schick

Summary: (1) RDI has spent the last three months at a pace rarely seen, we examine that and precedents in Chart of the Week; (2) Our math shows Consumer Velocity decelerated further last week, see…

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June 26, 2026

NFL Ecosystem Changing Economics – 7 Key Opportunities & Risks for Public and Private Investors for the Next Decade: Meeting Summary & Transcript

By David Katzman

We hosted an investor-focused meeting on the NFL economic ecosystem last week. We highlight 7 key opportunities and risks for public and private investors to consider. Summary: (1) media rights are the most durable leg;…

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June 26, 2026

Input Costs Flat w/w, +4.0% y/y as Packaging & Energy Ease, Cocoa Bounce; Key Grocery Perishables Deflationary. HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+, EPC-, PG-, KR-

By Jonathan Feeney

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor was flat but decelerated on a y/y basis for the fourth consecutive week. It had accelerated for 15 consecutive weeks after the breakout of the Iranian conflict. For the year,…

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June 25, 2026

US Alcohol: A Likely World Cup Winner; Survey Data Shows Strong Fan-Brand Matches While Viewership Peaks … DEO+, SAM+, STZ+, BUD+

By Jonathan Feeney

Summary: While this year’s World Cup breaks viewership and attendance records, we parse survey data for which brands & channels align most heavily with World Cup fandom in the US. The data leaves us hopeful…

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June 24, 2026

LTH (+); UAA (–); Sports Ecosystem Tracker Down But Stable; NKE Online Monitor Hits Highest Level Since 2023; News and Game of the Week: The Optimal Sports Section

By David Katzman

Sports Ecosystem spending was down but stable this week even as sub-index dynamics shifted, equity indices were mixed against a down market, and NKE’s online momentum indicators continued to trend favorably. Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports…

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June 23, 2026

Gen Z Winners & Losers: June Analysis across Sectors (Callouts Include TPR, SHAK, GPI, BYD)

By David Schick

Summary: Gen Z traction and growth are critical leading indicators given long-term demographic share shifts – in our June analysis of 114 names: (1) please see notable metrics from TPR, GPI, SHAK in Gen Z…

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June 23, 2026

Seeing What’s Working and Problematic for NKE: Nike House of Innovation, Air Force 1’s Featured at Foot Locker, But Discounted Shoe on AMZN Contradiction: This Week in Store Pics / TWISP NOTES

By David Katzman

Summary: Last week we examined what is working and not working in NKE go to market. We noted the energy and connectivity with global World Cup visitors and the brand’s highest level offering juxtaposed with…

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June 22, 2026

Housing Backdrop Key Variable Changed; Sentiment Inflection Differs by Income Strata; Spend Remains Positive with Slight Deceleration: Macro Monday

By David Schick

Summary: (1) Our math shows Consumer Velocity decelerated slightly last week which syncs up well with many of our industry conversations on tone of business, see Fig 1; (2) Housing inventory is approaching flat y/y,…

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June 18, 2026

Input Costs +1.3% w/w, +5.0% y/y, Packaging & Energy Reverse as Softs Tailwinds Ebb; HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+, EPC-, PG-

By Jonathan Feeney

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor was up slightly this week but decelerated on a y/y basis for the third straight week after accelerating for 15 consecutive weeks since the breakout of the Iranian conflict. Costs…

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June 17, 2026

MSGE (+) In Five; LULU (–); NKE Digital Traction Change Globally and in US; Our NFL Call Tomorrow: The Optimal Sports Section

By David Katzman

Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem revenue tracker remained negative at -0.8% T8W y/y; (2) Sports equity indices underperformed the broader market this week; (3) MSGE spending and digital traffic both inflected sharply higher in tandem…

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June 14, 2026

Deep Dive on Auto, Home, and Big Ticket Demand; Current Spend Holding Pattern Steady; NFL Meeting Thursday: Macro Monday on Sunday

By David Schick

Summary: (1) Autos, homes, and durable goods are sensitive to consumer perceptions of buying conditions and the selling, shipping, financing of these categories employ lots of Americans, in Chart of the Week we show that…

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June 12, 2026

Costs Ease (-1.4% w/w, +6.0% y/y), Still a Shocking +17% Since Late February Led By Energy; HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+, PG-, EPC-, CLX-

By Jonathan Feeney

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor declined again this week and decelerated on a y/y basis for just the second time since the breakout of the Iranian conflict. The factor remains a headwind (+6.0% y/y) to…

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June 11, 2026

Optimal TWISP Notes: This Week in Store Pics TGT ALDI ALO PROTEIN

By David Schick

Snapshots from our regular weekly store walks looking at execution, innovation, and merchandising includes: (1) Target new protein-water endcaps further emphasizing functional hydration; (2) we continue to discuss themes of weather swings across retail –…

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June 10, 2026

Sports Ecosystem Tracker Declines; NKE Gen Z Traffic Accelerating; News and Game of the Week; 6/18 “Every Day is Sunday” Event with Author & NYT Journalist Ken Belson: The Optimal Sports Section; ONON (+); UAA (–)

By David Katzman

Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem revenue tracker turned back negative at -1.0% T8W y/y, with Sports Betting & Data spending decelerating but remaining strong, Sports Fandom spending remaining negative but accelerating modestly, and Sports Participation…

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