The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor increased this week (+1.0% w/w); rising 7 of the last 8 weeks as energy costs wipe out continued tailwinds from food inputs. Energy, packaging, and transportation inputs are a major…

This week we note revenue tracking slowdown (in particular our Sports Fandom index), share price underperformance across sports sectors, NKE attention economy traction globally, improved PTON sentiment, and CALY, GOLF, GRMN card spending growth. The…

On Monday, Conagra’s board replaced its CEO with another industry insider, effective June 1st. The move came as fiscal 2027 (May) plans were taking center stage, after disappointing recent stock performance.  We think the market’s…

We think Conagra’s CEO change likely indicates both an uninspiring “test the market” and potentially lowered expectations – making them a marginally tougher competitor. While CAG’s valuation is optically attractive (8.2x TTM EV/EBITDA), we think…

Last Friday, we hosted LOVE CORN Co-Founder Gavin McCloskey for a 30-minute Report from the Snacking Front Line. In our view, it is a well-positioned disruptor in the salty snack market at a pivotal time….

In charts below: (1) fuel price correlation to PPI is notable and implies 4-8% PPI inbound; (2) Consumer Sentiment is now below 1970’s stagflation impacts – we unpack income strata; (3) housing activity is in…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor fell this week (-1.3% w/w) after 6 consecutive weeks of higher weekly input costs. Continued tailwinds from food products are offset by disruptive war-driven moves in packaging and transportation input…

Protein stands out – especially JBS & HRL – in an otherwise dreary & overvalued food sector. Increased consumer interest in protein, adoption of GLP-1 drugs, the high value ceiling set by high beef prices…

The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend declined -2% y/y (the 12-week trend is flat – we note -220 bps inflection). By sector, Sports Fandom’s 8-week spending trend is weakest (-15% y/y primarily…

Total nominal spending growth looks fairly consistent but gas station spending now accounts now 1/3 of nominal spending growth. Mortgage applications for a home purchase were running +19% y/y just eight weeks ago, and are…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor.  Costs were down -12.7% y/y just 5-weeks ago – a surprise challenge to CPG earnings algorithms. Cost tailwinds to watch: Softs/Sweeteners down -26.1% y/y, HSY -26.2% y/y, LW -19.0% y/y,…

The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran down -1.9% y/y, (the 12-week trend is flat, we note -190 bps inflection). By sector, Sports Fandom’s 8-week spending trend is worst at down -12.9%…

In this March report, we update our ongoing analysis across 88 consumer discretionary (see Figure 1). We calculate both (a) the inflection of AI-driven traffic, and (b) the mix of AI engagement within the context…

Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts.  March real-time spending is moderating as 7/18 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors now inflecting positively (compared to…

This Week in Macro / TWIM Notes … (1) late March gas station spending is measurably eating into overall spend versus a month ago (gas station spending up 25%+ y/y, cannibalization remarkably about half of…