June 29, 2026
Our attached 37-page Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book summarizes our updated June analysis of hundreds of public and private companies for non-normal change, examines spending and inflections by category, sentiment by ticker, early-indicator mindshare traction, and…
June 28, 2026
Summary: (1) RDI has spent the last three months at a pace rarely seen, we examine that and precedents in Chart of the Week; (2) Our math shows Consumer Velocity decelerated further last week, see…
June 26, 2026
We hosted an investor-focused meeting on the NFL economic ecosystem last week. We highlight 7 key opportunities and risks for public and private investors to consider. Summary: (1) media rights are the most durable leg;…
June 26, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor was flat but decelerated on a y/y basis for the fourth consecutive week. It had accelerated for 15 consecutive weeks after the breakout of the Iranian conflict. For the year,…
June 25, 2026
Summary: While this year’s World Cup breaks viewership and attendance records, we parse survey data for which brands & channels align most heavily with World Cup fandom in the US. The data leaves us hopeful…
June 24, 2026
Sports Ecosystem spending was down but stable this week even as sub-index dynamics shifted, equity indices were mixed against a down market, and NKE’s online momentum indicators continued to trend favorably. Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports…
June 23, 2026
Summary: Gen Z traction and growth are critical leading indicators given long-term demographic share shifts – in our June analysis of 114 names: (1) please see notable metrics from TPR, GPI, SHAK in Gen Z…
June 23, 2026
Summary: Last week we examined what is working and not working in NKE go to market. We noted the energy and connectivity with global World Cup visitors and the brand’s highest level offering juxtaposed with…
June 22, 2026
Summary: (1) Our math shows Consumer Velocity decelerated slightly last week which syncs up well with many of our industry conversations on tone of business, see Fig 1; (2) Housing inventory is approaching flat y/y,…
June 18, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor was up slightly this week but decelerated on a y/y basis for the third straight week after accelerating for 15 consecutive weeks since the breakout of the Iranian conflict. Costs…
June 17, 2026
Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem revenue tracker remained negative at -0.8% T8W y/y; (2) Sports equity indices underperformed the broader market this week; (3) MSGE spending and digital traffic both inflected sharply higher in tandem…
June 14, 2026
Summary: (1) Autos, homes, and durable goods are sensitive to consumer perceptions of buying conditions and the selling, shipping, financing of these categories employ lots of Americans, in Chart of the Week we show that…
June 12, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor declined again this week and decelerated on a y/y basis for just the second time since the breakout of the Iranian conflict. The factor remains a headwind (+6.0% y/y) to…
June 11, 2026
Snapshots from our regular weekly store walks looking at execution, innovation, and merchandising includes: (1) Target new protein-water endcaps further emphasizing functional hydration; (2) we continue to discuss themes of weather swings across retail –…
June 10, 2026
Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem revenue tracker turned back negative at -1.0% T8W y/y, with Sports Betting & Data spending decelerating but remaining strong, Sports Fandom spending remaining negative but accelerating modestly, and Sports Participation…