February 9, 2026
We are hosting a Virtual Client Meeting on Housing / Midterms / Policy next Friday, 2/20 at 11 am ET with Ted Gayer. Ted is President of the Niskanen Center and previously worked at the Brookings…
February 6, 2026
Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Cost Factor down w/w again this week and input costs continue to serve as tailwinds for Staples companies. The Optimal Cost Factor down (-1.8% w/w) and remains down sharply (-10.8%)…
February 5, 2026
The $2.3 trillion global sports economy is growing at 2.2x global GDP. A self-reinforcing flywheel of consumer tendencies is driving this ecosystem including fandom, gambling, and participation. We launch the Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index comprised…
February 3, 2026
TLDR — this morning’s PEP price cut headlines are ostensibly alarming like Marlboro Friday was in 1993. Yet PEP’s apparent confidence in driving volume with more affordability may be the bigger story for the industry,…
February 2, 2026
Consumer Velo was still positive but slightly softer than the prior week, up +2.0% following +2.7% last week. For reference, this metric was running -1.6% y/y five weeks ago but up +3-4% in 3Q25. Our analysis…
January 30, 2026
Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Cost Factor down w/w this week as volatile energy input prices moving back lower this week after spiking last week. The Optimal Cost Factor down (-3.2% w/w) and remains down…
January 28, 2026
In this updated report, we analyze both mix and inflection of traction with the key 18-34 year old consumer cohort. We calculate and examine these trends both across and within subsectors. Callouts include: SHAK, BOOT,…
January 28, 2026
Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts. January real-time spending is improving as 16/17 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors now inflecting positively (compared to…
January 26, 2026
Consumer Velo continues improvement, up +2.7% after months of decel. For reference, this metric was running -1.6% y/y four weeks ago but up +3-4% in 3Q25. Our analysis of the trailing 4-week moving average of sales…
January 25, 2026
We’ve had incoming questions about the recently filed Bob’s Discount Furniture S-1. We have consolidated some of our basic thoughts (and store pics) into this note. TLDR = Positive. We like the product and experience,…
January 23, 2026
Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Cost Factor up this week as critical energy input prices moving higher in prep for winter weather. The Optimal Cost Factor up this week (+5.9%) but remains down sharply (-11.2%)…
January 21, 2026
Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you our updated, 100+ chart, attached Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book. Softer discretionary trends have improved in January … we note overall spending reaccelerating as monitored in our weekly Monday…
January 20, 2026
TLDR: Last Friday, we hosted a 2026 CPG outlook call in with industry leader Mark Pogharian. The industry faces several challenges that are mainly structural, not cyclical including disruptors, digital marketing, & health trends which…
January 20, 2026
Consumer Velo continues improvement, up +2.5% after months of decel. For reference, this metric was running -1.6% y/y three weeks ago and +3-4% in 3Q25. Our analysis of the trailing 4-week moving average of sales at…
January 16, 2026
Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Another sharp w/w drop in critical input prices , the Optimal Cost Factor down this week (-2.0%) and down sharply (-10.9%) versus last year. TLDR — lower Input costs do…