The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor down this week (-0.3% w/w) as energy paused but now only down slightly (-2.2% y/y).  Costs were down -12.7% y/y just 4-weeks ago – a sudden move that presents a…

In March 19/32 categories inflected negatively, slightly more negative than the 18/32 negative in February (despite increased inflation as driver of incremental nominal growth). We have added 2-week trend analysis (to 4- and 12-week) due…

The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran down -0.6% y/y, in line with the 16-week trend. Within that industry, Sports Fandom’s 8-week spending trend is worst at down -7.3% y/y (EA, LYV,…

Key Takeaways 1 – Consumer spending remains positive but with gas station spending now contributing about 100 bp of the +2.4% y/y, and total pace is still softer than the strong 3Q25 pace. Consumer Discretionary…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor rose again this week (+0.8% w/w) with energy & freight costs higher on Middle East conflict – but remains down (-5.4% y/y).  The Costs Factor was running down -12.7% y/y…

The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran up +1% y/y, decelerated from +2% last year, but 200 bps above the 16-week trend. Within that index, Sports Fandom’s 8-week spending trend is flat…

1 – Magnitude and duration of gas price moves matter. Now at 40% y/y inflation we’d expect trip consolidation and about 200 bp discrectionary headwind (or most of the current spending pace) if pressure persist…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor jumped again this week (+3.3% w/w) but remains down (-9.2% y/y), driven by energy & freight costs in the wake of Middle East conflict. Fertilizer supply uncertainty is a rising…

The Optimal Sports Ecosystem revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran up +2.1% y/y, continuing its positive but decelerating trend that is still stronger than late 4Q ’25 and early 1Q ’26. Fandom cohort spending, which had…

We believe staples leaders broadly enjoy above average resilience to disruption from the proliferation of generative AI. Inside we identify eight factors – including brand value, regulatory barriers, asset footprint & switching costs — that…

On Saturday morning, Optimal stood in line for the Nike drop at Foot Locker for the release of the Air Jordan 4 “Lakeshow” shoes (Optimal Advisory Managing Partner, Co-Founder, and Boston sports fan Jonathan Feeney…

1) As we noted last week, the middle 3 income quintiles do about 5% of their spending on gasoline. So our 3-decade simple rule-of-thumb remains in place – that any 10% y/y move, then, creates…

In our Sunday 3/1 “conflict edition” of Macro Monday we highlighted out rule of thumb on shocks to the consumer: (1) duration and magnitude of impact both matter a lot (Sentiment, rates, commodity costs), and…

Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Cost Factor rose (+1.9% w/w) but remains sharply down (-12.5% y/y), with energy & freight costs bouncing on conflict in the Middle East. The Optimal Cost Factor unpacks implications for…