Summary: (1) we note revenue deceleration and declines (in particular our Sports Fandom index with substantial decline); (2) share price outperformance in our Sports Fandom Index, inline performance for our Sports Participation Index, and underperformance…

Summary: (1) Our analysis suggests consumer spending slowed further last week – there is clear math on shopping trip consolidation – and gas station spending was the vast majority of nominal spend growth, see Fig…

Summary: (1) The Nike debates in which we are involved fit into three buckets: over-reliance on heritage versus innovation, muddled DTC and wholesale execution, and declining cultural relevance across categories / geographies; (2) our attached…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor increased this week (+1.4% w/w). Our proprietary measure of weighted input costs is now up +14.2% since CAGNY (late Feb) – a putative 300+ bps spot gross margin headwind (varies…

Summary: (1) MLKN, BBY, NCLH, WMT are highest measured names in AI importance, see Fig 1; (2) NCLH, CRI, CCL are highest combination of importance of AI traffic with inflection, see Fig 2; (3) AI…

Summary: (1) we note continued revenue slowdown (in particular our Sports Fandom index is sharply decelerating); (2) share price underperformance in Fandom and Participation Indices this week but strong Sports & Betting Index performance; (3)…

Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts. Consumer spending trends pressured across the Staples economy in April. We note only 2 /19 measured…

Summary: (1) Our analysis shows consumer spending slowed again last week, see Fig 1; (2) Last week saw some improved purchase and refi application activity as mortgage rates have declined over the last 3 weeks…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor increased this week (+2.1% w/w) as steady tailwinds from softs, sweeteners, and proteins are overwhelmed (now +5.6% y/y having been down ~-12% y/y in February) by stacking packaging and energy…

Summary: Gen Z traction and growth are critical leading indicators given long-term demographic share shifts – in April’s analysis of 113 companies across sectors we note: (1) BOOT, SHAK, TPR lead Gen Z traction growth,…

Summary: our attached 37-page Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book tracks spending, ticker-by-ticker sentiment, early-indicator mindshare traction, and macro conditions across discretionary: (1) consumer spending is broadly softening, with 20 out of 32 measured categories showing negative…

Summary: (1) we note continued revenue slowdown (in particular our Sports Fandom index); (2) share price underperformance in Fandom and Betting & Data Indices but strong Participation Index performance; (3) NKE in-store (foot traffic) monitor…

Summary: (1) our attached 28-page analysis shows current GLP-1 users differ meaningfully from the national population across demographics, behaviors, and consumer preferences; (2) next wave users skew older, wealthier, higher income & Hispanic; (3) usage…

Summary: (1) a key overlooked theme in our discussions is the currently frozen housing market due to energy driven interest rate spike in March – our math suggests 18% of GDP tied to US housing…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor increased this week (+1.0% w/w); rising 7 of the last 8 weeks as energy costs wipe out continued tailwinds from food inputs. Energy, packaging, and transportation inputs are a major…