March 6, 2026
In our Sunday 3/1 “conflict edition” of Macro Monday we highlighted out rule of thumb on shocks to the consumer: (1) duration and magnitude of impact both matter a lot (Sentiment, rates, commodity costs), and…
March 6, 2026
Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Cost Factor rose (+1.9% w/w) but remains sharply down (-12.5% y/y), with energy & freight costs bouncing on conflict in the Middle East. The Optimal Cost Factor unpacks implications for…
March 4, 2026
The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran up +3.5% y/y, down slightly from last week but still stronger than most of 4Q ’25 and 1Q ‘26, primarily due to increased spending in…
March 4, 2026
TLDR: While last week’s earnings (DEO, SAM) showed no relief from a challenged U.S. alcohol market, we think transient headwinds like oversupply, affordability & pricing are driving the declines more than any long-term shift. With…
March 1, 2026
US armed conflict started over the last 48 hours. We examine the prior 5 armed conflicts for patterns of consumer and market reactions. We add this analysis to our weekly Macro Monday analysis of US…
February 27, 2026
Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts. February real-time spending is moderating as 10/18 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors now inflecting positively (compared to…
February 27, 2026
Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Cost Factor up (+0.4% w/w) and remains down sharply (-12.6%) y/y – a key tailwind for CPG, Foodservice & Restaurants; a key headwind for retailer comp. Lower Input costs do…
February 26, 2026
In this updated report, we analyze both mix of Gen Z engagement and inflection of Gen Z traction with this key 18-34 year old consumer cohort. We calculate and examine these trends both across and…
February 25, 2026
The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran up +3.8% y/y, the strongest run rate since October, primarily due to increased spending in our Fandom cohort. Participation cohort spend trend is weak but…
February 23, 2026
We discussed the SCOTUS tariff ruling in our meeting with Ted Gayer, President of Niskanen Center and former Head of Brookings Institution Economic Studies Program last Friday 2/20. The weekend then brought 2 new broad-based…
February 22, 2026
We update our analysis of both the importance of AI (mix of engagement driven by AI) and the growth of AI engagement across 84 consumer names (see Figure 1). AI platforms are increasingly driving consumer…
February 20, 2026
Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Cost Factor down w/w again this week and input costs continue to serve as tailwinds for Staples companies. The Optimal Cost Factor down (-0.6% w/w) and remains down sharply (-12.0%)…
February 20, 2026
The most positive investable themes we heard so far from CAGNY 2026 are the growth & margin outlook for protein (JBSAY, HRL), the rising importance of flavor (KRYAY, MKC), India (ULVR) and with almost all…
February 19, 2026
Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you our attached Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book comprised of 5 sections: Attention Economy Inflections, Sector Spending Analysis, Valuation Snapshot, Thematic Analysis, and Consumer Macro. Our days are full of “AI-Resistant”…
February 18, 2026
The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran up +2.7% y/y and is positive for the third straight week, primarily due to increased spending at Ticketmaster. We note positive rate-of-change, see charts below….