November 28, 2025
AI platforms are increasingly impacting consumer choices. In this November report, we update and expand our October analysis to 88 names, see summary Figure 1. We calculate both the relative (a) inflection of AI-driven traffic…
November 25, 2025
Please see the full attached 42-page Briefing Book. November real-time spending is softening across 15/18 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors, we also note positive inflection in spending growth for club & mainstream grocers’ ticket… versus a…
November 24, 2025
Consumer Velo slowed further last week. Shorter-term spending growth decelerated further last week, now running up +0.4% y/y (now 1.4 standard deviations below average since the start of 2022). Longer-term spending growth is running up…
November 21, 2025
Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Energy joined the cost decline party this week on macro concerns – albeit still +24% off 12 month low. Last week’s surprise tariff reduction on key CPG inputs augments an…
November 19, 2025
We recently hosted a client virtual event with Scott Monette, former CFO of Ralcorp to explore sector implications of last week’s announcement of a proposed go private transaction for private label food & beverage consolidator…
November 18, 2025
Please see the full attached 44-page Briefing Book. Our upcoming virtual client meetings, contact us with questions: China and India Markets 2026-2040 (Forces at Work) with Dan Markey senior fellow in China & South Asia…
November 17, 2025
Consumer Velo continues to show further softening. Shorter-term spending trends decelerated further last week, now running up less +0.9% y/y (1.2 standard deviations below average since the start of 2022). The longer-term trend is running…
November 17, 2025
Surprise Food Targeted Tariff Relief. On Friday, the Trump administration announced the immediate rollback of tariffs on dozens of food related items, in an apparent attempt to lower grocery bills. This followed putative food related…
November 17, 2025
Friday 11/14, we hosted meetings with FIGS management: Sarah Outred (CFO) and Tom Shaw (SVP Investor Relations). We love (a) hosting meetings with interesting companies and (b) thinking up acronyms, so here we go ……
November 14, 2025
Optimal Advisory Friday Cost Factor – Food & restaurant sector can broadly plan for calendar 2026 input cost tailwinds, while packaging & energy remain headwinds, especially for HPC, Beverages. Cost Factor flat w/w, -3.1% y/y…
November 10, 2025
Treehouse Foods (THS) Going Private. This morning, the company announced an agreement with PE firm Investindustrial to be acquired in all-cash transaction for an equity value of $1.2B along with contingent consideration for the proceeds…
November 10, 2025
Optimal Advisory Consumer Velo continues to soften. Shorter-term spending trends further slowed last week and are now 1.2 standard deviations below average since the start of 2022, running up +1.0% y/y (this metric was running +3-4% just two months ago). Longer-term trend is running up +1.9% y/y, leading to…
November 7, 2025
November 07, 2025 Optimal Advisory Friday Cost Factor Cost Factor up 3.0% last week. Natural gas leads energy spot cost spike, while cocoa, coffee & chicken wings bring relief. We think spot commodity tailwinds are…
November 5, 2025
TLDR = We are fielding questions as Gen Z behavior and demand is in focus. Prominent fast casual restaurants Cava and Chipotle have both recently discussed a pullback from Gen Z as an impact on…
November 5, 2025
As per NYT today … Thursday 11/6 at Noon ET (registration link below) – Optimal Advisory hosts Michael Mone – President & CEO of Harry Bachrach, Inc (a 62-year-old sourcing firm for the apparel industry). Michael…