July 24, 2026
Gen Z traction and mix are critical leading indicators given long-term demographic share shifts – in July’s analysis of 115 companies across sectors we note TPR, RL, LULU, GME, RH, WYNN have notable divergences from…
July 24, 2026
Our 3 Keys to MSFT EPS: Capex Impact on FCF, Azure Capacity, and Copilot Monetization Optimal’s 3 keys for MSFT EPS: (1) capex revisions to 2026 & 2027 capex vs. sequential Q2 FCF change; (2)…
July 24, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor accelerated on a y/y basis for the third week in a row. For the year, costs are up (+5.5% y/y) primarily on energy and packaging as oil again approaches $100/barrel….
July 23, 2026
Summary: In this report we analyze (a) the health of metro markets crossed with Jersey Mike’s geographic concentration; (b) brand traction of JMKE and its peer set; (c) a detailed cross-section of recent trends at…
July 22, 2026
This week’s announced acquisition of US based UTZ by German snacking leader Intersnack highlights the value of distribution optionality, the snack occasion & other attractive food niches even within a tough US food sector. We…
July 22, 2026
Sports Ecosystem trends accelerated further last week as sports betting showed inflection, our sports ecosystem indices largely outperformed the softer overall market, and we update our NKE analysis as our digital traction math continues to…
July 21, 2026
7 Key Issues We’re Watching Tomorrow What we would act on Three things: any change to 2026 or 2027 capex expectations, read alongside backlog and capacity commentary; Search monetization relative to AI query growth and…
July 19, 2026
Summary: (1) Our analysis of the latest buying attitudes by category points to consumers at low and worsening purchase plans except for homes, see Charts of the Week; (2) Our analysis shows spending decelerated last…
July 17, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor accelerated on a y/y basis for the second week in a row. For the year, costs are up (+4.3% y/y) primarily on energy and packaging. Deflationary softs & sweeteners have…
July 16, 2026
This week we walked accessory brand outlet stores in addition to Coach’s New York 5th Avenue flagship store for contrast and to see how the major New York accessory show discounts and present in store….
July 15, 2026
Sports Ecosystem spending trends inflected back upwards to flat this week, our sector equity indices were mixed against the broader market, and we update our analysis on NKE across the US and globally. Summary: (1)…
July 14, 2026
One feedback loop drives the boom: chatbot hype and record user adoption, automation gains for developers, fast-growing revenue at the AI labs, and FOMO. It has lifted all three of our subsectors: Infrastructure, Software, and Tech Megacaps. Our Five…
July 12, 2026
Summary: (1) Cyclospora is just beginning to drive income questions on restaurant, produce, and the food supply chain, in Chart of the Week we measure the level of concerns and discuss names and precedents; (2)…
July 10, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor accelerated on a y/y basis this week after decelerating for 5 consecutive weeks. For the year, costs are only up slightly (+3.6% y/y) on energy and packaging, but still up…
July 9, 2026
Highlights of our regular weekly store walks looking at execution, innovation, shelves, endcaps, and pallets. This week we tracked the proteinification of the store across three channels: Costco, Wegmans, and Amazon. Summary: (1) protein is…