November 3, 2025
Optimal Advisory Macro Monday 11/3/25 – Low End Slope Worse Optimal Advisory Consumer Velo softened last week. Shorter-term spending trends decelerated last week and are now over 1 standard deviation below average since the start…
October 30, 2025
October real-time spending is softening across 16/18 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors, we also note: strong spending growth for grocery & meal delivery… versus sharp drop in club spending and premium grocery transaction growth not translating…
October 28, 2025
Escalation of Benefits Risk. According to a current message on the USDA website with respect to SNAP; “the well has run dry. At this time, there will be no benefits issued November 1.” We still…
October 20, 2025
We are fielding questions on both subsectors and companies and the changing dynamics of the “consumer attention economy” in an increasingly AI driven environment. According to a variety of estimates, between 50-60% of Americans are…
October 14, 2025
Last Friday (10/10), we hosted a virtual client event on Government Shutdown Impacts from Farm to Table featuring 3 government affairs leaders with extensive USDA & legislative experience. Key highlights below—please reach out with questions….
October 9, 2025
Softer discretionary trends recently … we note real-time decel in 26 of 30 proprietary Optimal subsector tracking: positive inflections in gas stations, airlines, and beauty … versus negative inflections in broadline and e-commerce (notable together) along with apparel, accommodation,…
October 6, 2025
We are fielding questions (over the last few days) about our thoughts on the potential impact of any prolonged government shutdown. The current shutdown is now 6 days long (and counting). Recent shutdowns have been…
October 1, 2025
Yesterday (9/30), we hosted a client call on front-line beverage alcohol trends with the President of a leading private distributor. Key highlights below—please reach out with questions. Environment Improving into Holiday, but Assortment Under Pressure….
September 25, 2025
September spending is softening somewhat across our 16 proprietary real-time spending cohorts (pp 5-12). Strong spending momentum in hard discounters, premium grocery, & grocery delivery – powered by explosive growth in Amazon Fresh while sustained…