Summary: (1) Our analysis shows consumer spending slowed again last week, see Fig 1; (2) Last week saw some improved purchase and refi application activity as mortgage rates have declined over the last 3 weeks…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor increased this week (+2.1% w/w) as steady tailwinds from softs, sweeteners, and proteins are overwhelmed (now +5.6% y/y having been down ~-12% y/y in February) by stacking packaging and energy…

Summary: Gen Z traction and growth are critical leading indicators given long-term demographic share shifts – in April’s analysis of 113 companies across sectors we note: (1) BOOT, SHAK, TPR lead Gen Z traction growth,…

Summary: our attached 37-page Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book tracks spending, ticker-by-ticker sentiment, early-indicator mindshare traction, and macro conditions across discretionary: (1) consumer spending is broadly softening, with 20 out of 32 measured categories showing negative…

Summary: (1) we note continued revenue slowdown (in particular our Sports Fandom index); (2) share price underperformance in Fandom and Betting & Data Indices but strong Participation Index performance; (3) NKE in-store (foot traffic) monitor…

Summary: (1) our attached 28-page analysis shows current GLP-1 users differ meaningfully from the national population across demographics, behaviors, and consumer preferences; (2) next wave users skew older, wealthier, higher income & Hispanic; (3) usage…

Summary: (1) a key overlooked theme in our discussions is the currently frozen housing market due to energy driven interest rate spike in March – our math suggests 18% of GDP tied to US housing…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor increased this week (+1.0% w/w); rising 7 of the last 8 weeks as energy costs wipe out continued tailwinds from food inputs. Energy, packaging, and transportation inputs are a major…

This week we note revenue tracking slowdown (in particular our Sports Fandom index), share price underperformance across sports sectors, NKE attention economy traction globally, improved PTON sentiment, and CALY, GOLF, GRMN card spending growth. The…

On Monday, Conagra’s board replaced its CEO with another industry insider, effective June 1st. The move came as fiscal 2027 (May) plans were taking center stage, after disappointing recent stock performance.  We think the market’s…

We think Conagra’s CEO change likely indicates both an uninspiring “test the market” and potentially lowered expectations – making them a marginally tougher competitor. While CAG’s valuation is optically attractive (8.2x TTM EV/EBITDA), we think…

Last Friday, we hosted LOVE CORN Co-Founder Gavin McCloskey for a 30-minute Report from the Snacking Front Line. In our view, it is a well-positioned disruptor in the salty snack market at a pivotal time….

In charts below: (1) fuel price correlation to PPI is notable and implies 4-8% PPI inbound; (2) Consumer Sentiment is now below 1970’s stagflation impacts – we unpack income strata; (3) housing activity is in…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor fell this week (-1.3% w/w) after 6 consecutive weeks of higher weekly input costs. Continued tailwinds from food products are offset by disruptive war-driven moves in packaging and transportation input…

Protein stands out – especially JBS & HRL – in an otherwise dreary & overvalued food sector. Increased consumer interest in protein, adoption of GLP-1 drugs, the high value ceiling set by high beef prices…