Summary: (1) BBY, HD, WMT, DKS are the highest measured names in AI contribution, see Fig 1; (2) AI growth continues, but rate-of-change is now mixed across categories and companies: positive in Travel and Autos,…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor rose this week (+1.5% w/w, +7.9% y/y) as energy and packaging costs drive higher on Iran uncertainty. Some tailwinds remain including softs, sweeteners, and proteins. We think it means 3…

Summary: Our report analyzes Gen Z traction against short positioning, traffic trend, and mix composition across 113 names: (1) TPR, SHAK, BOOT lead Gen Z traction growth (Figure 1), all three also showing rising short…

Summary: our attached 37-page Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book tracks spending, ticker-by-ticker sentiment, early-indicator mindshare traction, and macro conditions across discretionary: (1) consumer spending is mixed, with 19 out of 32 measured categories showing negative inflections…

Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem T8W revenue tracker remained positive led by accelerating Sports Betting & Data spending, while Sports Fandom and Sports Participation continued to decline on weak transactions (T16W revenue tracker was negative);…

Summary: (1) See charts of the week at the top and store pics at the end of full report – there is now real risk in the five sigma divergence between Consumer Sentiment and stock…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor was flat this week (+7.2% y/y). Energy & packaging increases since Iran hostilities have rapidly erased late 2025/early 2026 tailwinds – an especially thorny problem for CPG companies in categories…

Earlier today, we hosted a virtual event with Michael Manzo, EVP and CFO of Winebow — a national premium wine and spirits distributor. The summer outlook for wine and spirits remains challenging, with no meaningful…

Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem revenue tracker accelerated led by Sports Betting & Data, while Sports Fandom and Sports Participation declined on weak transactions; (2) the Equal-Weight and Cap-Weighted Sports Ecosystem Indices both outperformed the…

Overall, we remain optimistic for the U.S. alcohol market entering summer 2026 – despite cautious recent comments for U.S. centric players. We note stable occasions, consumers preferring more premium brands, and retailers featuring them more…

Summary: (1) Consumer spending remained in general subdued trend last week as the T4W trend lifted to +1.4% y/y (from +1.1% the prior week) while the 12-week trend decelerated slightly to +2.6% y/y (from +2.8%…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor (+6.6% y/y) increased for the fifth straight week this week (+2.2% w/w). Energy and energy-driven packaging costs more the offset tailwinds from softs, sweeteners, and proteins. CPG Companies counting on…

Summary: (1) We see Nike / China commentary today in WSJ as “priced in”; we flagged this dynamic in our February 5th Sports Ecosystem launch (our analysis of Gen Z traction remains 3000 bps better…

Summary: (1) Our +65% y/y estimate for the upcoming May Major NYC Impressionist, Modern, and Contemporary auctions suggesting robust extreme high end activity, see Chart of the Week … we call out high quality supply…

Summary: (1) We update our retailer, restaurant, and brand due diligence question list with 5 key new additions from delivery shifts occurring in 2026, see full note; (2) Amazon opened its logistics network last week,…