July 31, 2026
Summary: (1) BBY, MAR, HD, MLKN are the highest measured names in AI importance, see Fig 1; (2) AI inflections are positive across all four categories (Travel, Autos, Retail, Apparel), see Fig 2; (3) MAR,…
July 31, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor decelerated -2.2% w/w but remain up +6.9% y/y and roughly +15% off February pre-conflict lows driven by energy and packaging. Softening from oilseeds, dairy, and grains supported easing costs this…
July 30, 2026
Highlights of our regular weekly store visits. We visited New Balance & Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) retail locations for a mid-summer athleisure & sporting goods review. DKS does a great job setting floor space for…
July 30, 2026
Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts. Virtually All July Real Time Spend Segments Inflecting Negatively Y/Y. 18/19 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors inflecting…
July 29, 2026
Sports Ecosystem spending trends built on recent momentum this week, our sector equity indices broadly gained against a declining market, and our latest NKE analysis finds improvement across channels. Summary: (1) Sports Ecosystem revenue tracker…
July 29, 2026
3 Key Issues We’re Watching Thursday What we would act on Three keys: (1) revisions to the ~$200bn 2026 capex plan and any 2027 framing, relative to sequential FCF trend; (2) the composition of the…
July 28, 2026
3 Key Issues We’re Watching Wednesday What we would act on Three things: (1) revisions to the $125-145bn capex range, relative to sequential FCF trend; (2) the ad engine’s revenue & margin progression including price-versus-impression…
July 26, 2026
Summary: (1) We explain how decoupled jobless claims are now from reality and which metro markets have momentum and pressure (see Charts of the Week); (2) Our math shows Consumer Velocity continuing to decel sharply…
July 24, 2026
In this note we show findings of our regular store visits. We visited the Tiffany’s 5th Avenue flagship in NYC which reopened in 2Q23 after a four-year renovation. The project was the first full building…
July 24, 2026
Gen Z traction and mix are critical leading indicators given long-term demographic share shifts – in July’s analysis of 115 companies across sectors we note TPR, RL, LULU, GME, RH, WYNN have notable divergences from…
July 24, 2026
Our 3 Keys to MSFT EPS: Capex Impact on FCF, Azure Capacity, and Copilot Monetization Optimal’s 3 keys for MSFT EPS: (1) capex revisions to 2026 & 2027 capex vs. sequential Q2 FCF change; (2)…
July 24, 2026
The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor accelerated on a y/y basis for the third week in a row. For the year, costs are up (+5.5% y/y) primarily on energy and packaging as oil again approaches $100/barrel….
July 23, 2026
Summary: In this report we analyze (a) the health of metro markets crossed with Jersey Mike’s geographic concentration; (b) brand traction of JMKE and its peer set; (c) a detailed cross-section of recent trends at…
July 22, 2026
This week’s announced acquisition of US based UTZ by German snacking leader Intersnack highlights the value of distribution optionality, the snack occasion & other attractive food niches even within a tough US food sector. We…
July 22, 2026
Sports Ecosystem trends accelerated further last week as sports betting showed inflection, our sports ecosystem indices largely outperformed the softer overall market, and we update our NKE analysis as our digital traction math continues to…