Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Cost Factor down w/w this week as volatile energy input prices moving back lower this week after spiking last week. The Optimal Cost Factor down (-3.2% w/w) and remains down…

In this updated report, we analyze both mix and inflection of traction with the key 18-34 year old consumer cohort. We calculate and examine these trends both across and within subsectors. Callouts include: SHAK, BOOT,…

Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts.  January real-time spending is improving as 16/17 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors now inflecting positively (compared to…

Consumer Velo continues improvement, up +2.7% after months of decel. For reference, this metric was running -1.6% y/y four weeks ago but up +3-4% in 3Q25. Our analysis of the trailing 4-week moving average of sales…

We’ve had incoming questions about the recently filed Bob’s Discount Furniture S-1. We have consolidated some of our basic thoughts (and store pics) into this note. TLDR = Positive. We like the product and experience,…

Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Cost Factor up this week as critical energy input prices moving higher in prep for winter weather. The Optimal Cost Factor up this week (+5.9%) but remains down sharply (-11.2%)…

Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you our updated, 100+ chart, attached Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book.  Softer discretionary trends have improved in January … we note overall spending reaccelerating as monitored in our weekly Monday…

TLDR: Last Friday, we hosted a 2026 CPG outlook call in with industry leader Mark Pogharian. The industry faces several challenges that are mainly structural, not cyclical including disruptors, digital marketing, & health trends which…

Consumer Velo continues improvement, up +2.5% after months of decel. For reference, this metric was running -1.6% y/y three weeks ago and +3-4% in 3Q25. Our analysis of the trailing 4-week moving average of sales at…

Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Another sharp w/w drop in critical input prices  , the Optimal Cost Factor down this week (-2.0%) and down sharply (-10.9%) versus last year. TLDR — lower Input costs do…

In this January report, we update our analysis across 91 consumer names (see Figure 1). We calculate both (a) the relative inflection of AI-driven traffic (visits to a website driven by AI platforms) and (b)…

Figure A: Relative Retail Performance and USD Index A reminder … a strong dollar tends to (a) allow retailers to incrementally grow margins over time (they are net import businesses) and (b) occur when retail…

TLDR: We think Wednesday’s Albertson’s Q3 print (ACI -3.7% for the week) is a harbinger of tougher headlines and shakier outlooks for all food retailers, even vendors. Input costs are down, most sharply in pass…

Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – After a w/w drop in many measured commodities last week, the Optimal Cost Factor increased this week (+0.8%) but is near a 52 week low. TLDR — lower Input costs…

Consumer Velo rebounds to +0.8% y/y, though we note primarily due to weaker year-end 2024 spending. For reference, this metric was running -1.7% y/y last week and +3-4% in 3Q25. Our analysis of the trailing 4-week…