Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – Another sharp w/w drop in critical input prices  , the Optimal Cost Factor down this week (-2.0%) and down sharply (-10.9%) versus last year. TLDR — lower Input costs do…

In this January report, we update our analysis across 91 consumer names (see Figure 1). We calculate both (a) the relative inflection of AI-driven traffic (visits to a website driven by AI platforms) and (b)…

Figure A: Relative Retail Performance and USD Index A reminder … a strong dollar tends to (a) allow retailers to incrementally grow margins over time (they are net import businesses) and (b) occur when retail…

TLDR: We think Wednesday’s Albertson’s Q3 print (ACI -3.7% for the week) is a harbinger of tougher headlines and shakier outlooks for all food retailers, even vendors. Input costs are down, most sharply in pass…

Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – After a w/w drop in many measured commodities last week, the Optimal Cost Factor increased this week (+0.8%) but is near a 52 week low. TLDR — lower Input costs…

Consumer Velo rebounds to +0.8% y/y, though we note primarily due to weaker year-end 2024 spending. For reference, this metric was running -1.7% y/y last week and +3-4% in 3Q25. Our analysis of the trailing 4-week…

Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – All measured Tickers and Industry Indices down w/w. After a blip higher last week, another steep w/w decline in energy costs as 24/32 measured commodities overall flat/down w/w. Cost Factor…

Please see the full attached 41-page Briefing Book. Our upcoming virtual client meetings, contact us with questions:​ •Fine Dining & Hospitality / Luxury that Cares – Virtual Meeting with Jose Andres Group CEO – 1/20…

Consumer Velo soft again, but the softening is stabilizing a bit … shorter-term spending declines at -1.7% y/y (this metric was running +4% in August and +3% in September) while longer-term is now down -0.2%…

In this updated report, we analyze both mix and inflection of digital traction with the key 18-34 year old consumer cohort. We calculate and examine these trends both across and within subsectors.  Callouts include: SHAK,…

Consumer Velo softened further last week … shorter-term spending trend decline is now at -1.7% y/y (this metric was running -0.5% y/y prior week, +4% in August and +3% in September). Our analysis of the trailing…

Optimal Advisory Cost Factor – All measured Tickers and Industry Indices down w/w as input costs move lower. Steep declines in energy cost over the last 2 weeks are outweighing bottoming in other input commodities….

In this December report, we update our November analysis across 89 consumer names (see Figure 1). We calculate both the relative (a) inflection of AI-driven traffic and (b) importance of AI engagement within the context of digital engagement of consumers. AI platforms are increasingly driving consumer choices, though we note…

1.     “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Agentic/AI Commerce Matters.” Moving from AI assisted search to AI purchase & delivery could create a huge realignment of spending, customer acquisition and disintermediation across products & channels….

Consumer Velo softened further last week … shorter-term spending declines now below -1% y/y (this metric was running +4% in August and +3% in September). Our analysis of trailing 4-week moving average of sales at…