Latest Reports

July 10, 2026

Input Costs +2.1 w/w, +3.6% y/y with Renewed Conflict; Cocoa & Coffee Surge. Key Perishable Deflation Threatens Grocery Comp. LW+, Wing Restaurants+, EPC-, CPB-, KR-

By Jonathan Feeney

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor accelerated on a y/y basis this week after decelerating for 5 consecutive weeks. For the year, costs are only up slightly (+3.6% y/y) on energy and packaging, but still up…

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July 9, 2026

TWISP Notes: This Week in Store Pics – Proteinification at Costco, Wegmans, and Amazon

By David Schick

Highlights of our regular weekly store walks looking at execution, innovation, shelves, endcaps, and pallets. This week we tracked the proteinification of the store across three channels: Costco, Wegmans, and Amazon. Summary: (1) protein is…

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July 8, 2026

LTH & UAA Inflect; Sports Ecosystem Tracker Down but Stable; Betting Leads; NKE Digital Traffic Accelerates at Highest Levels Since 2023: The Optimal Sports Section

By David Katzman

Sports Ecosystem trends stayed slightly negative this week, our sector equity indices were mixed against a flat market, and we dive into our latest analysis on NKE across the US and globally. Summary: (1) Optimal’s…

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July 5, 2026

Gen X Woes; Consumer Velocity Stable; Borrowing Costs Stay Elevated; Wealth Effect Decelerates a Third Straight Week: Macro Monday (on Sunday)

By David Schick

Summary: (1) In our conversations with companies, we continue to hear about Gen Z and Boomer strength (and the pinch for Xers) … in Chart of the Week we highlight compelling analysis that after-tax, after-transfer…

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July 2, 2026

TWISP Notes: This Week in Store Pics – Coastal Premium Brands

By David Schick

Highlights of our regular weekly store walks looking at execution, innovation, shelves, endcaps, and pallets. This week we examine premium coastal summer brand stores. Summary: (1) La Jolla this week, a read on premium coastal…

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July 2, 2026

Input Costs -0.7% w/w, +3.4% y/y. Energy Eases, Coffee Bounces & Key Grocery Perishables Deflationary. HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+, EPC-, PG-, KR-, ACI-

By Jonathan Feeney

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor decelerated on a y/y basis for the fifth consecutive week. It had accelerated for 15 consecutive weeks after the breakout of the Iranian conflict. For the year, costs are up…

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July 1, 2026

ONON & LULU Inflections; Sports Ecosystem Tracker Stable; NKE Earnings & China Thoughts: The Optimal Sports Section

By David Katzman

Sports Ecosystem trends stayed slightly negative this week, our sector equity indices primarily underperformed, and we dive into our analysis on NKE and especially in China following yesterday’s reported earnings. Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports Ecosystem…

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June 30, 2026

BBY, DKS, HD, WMT, RH, LOW Callouts: Analyzing AI Traction & Growth across 109 Retailers, Brands, Travel, and Autos in June

By David Schick

In this June report, we update our work across 109 consumer names. We analyze both (a) the relative inflection of AI-driven engagement and (b) the weight of AI engagement within the mix of engagement of…

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June 29, 2026

Ticket Story Compounds Impact in Discretionary (Off Price, Luxury, Home Improvement, Athleisure); “Canary in Coalmine” Traction Indicators: June 2026 Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book

By David Schick

Our attached 37-page Consumer Discretionary Briefing Book summarizes our updated June analysis of hundreds of public and private companies for non-normal change, examines spending and inflections by category, sentiment by ticker, early-indicator mindshare traction, and…

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June 28, 2026

Income’s 9 or 13 Year Event; Wealth Effect Ends 11 Week Streak; Consumer Velo Soft and with Decel: Macro Monday (on Sunday)

By David Schick

Summary: (1) RDI has spent the last three months at a pace rarely seen, we examine that and precedents in Chart of the Week; (2) Our math shows Consumer Velocity decelerated further last week, see…

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June 26, 2026

NFL Ecosystem Changing Economics – 7 Key Opportunities & Risks for Public and Private Investors for the Next Decade: Meeting Summary & Transcript

By David Katzman

We hosted an investor-focused meeting on the NFL economic ecosystem last week. We highlight 7 key opportunities and risks for public and private investors to consider. Summary: (1) media rights are the most durable leg;…

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June 26, 2026

Input Costs Flat w/w, +4.0% y/y as Packaging & Energy Ease, Cocoa Bounce; Key Grocery Perishables Deflationary. HSY+, LW+, MDLZ+, EPC-, PG-, KR-

By Jonathan Feeney

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor was flat but decelerated on a y/y basis for the fourth consecutive week. It had accelerated for 15 consecutive weeks after the breakout of the Iranian conflict. For the year,…

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June 25, 2026

US Alcohol: A Likely World Cup Winner; Survey Data Shows Strong Fan-Brand Matches While Viewership Peaks … DEO+, SAM+, STZ+, BUD+

By Jonathan Feeney

Summary: While this year’s World Cup breaks viewership and attendance records, we parse survey data for which brands & channels align most heavily with World Cup fandom in the US. The data leaves us hopeful…

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June 24, 2026

LTH (+); UAA (–); Sports Ecosystem Tracker Down But Stable; NKE Online Monitor Hits Highest Level Since 2023; News and Game of the Week: The Optimal Sports Section

By David Katzman

Sports Ecosystem spending was down but stable this week even as sub-index dynamics shifted, equity indices were mixed against a down market, and NKE’s online momentum indicators continued to trend favorably. Summary: (1) Optimal’s Sports…

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June 23, 2026

Gen Z Winners & Losers: June Analysis across Sectors (Callouts Include TPR, SHAK, GPI, BYD)

By David Schick

Summary: Gen Z traction and growth are critical leading indicators given long-term demographic share shifts – in our June analysis of 114 names: (1) please see notable metrics from TPR, GPI, SHAK in Gen Z…

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