In charts below: (1) fuel price correlation to PPI is notable and implies 4-8% PPI inbound; (2) Consumer Sentiment is now below 1970’s stagflation impacts – we unpack income strata; (3) housing activity is in…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor fell this week (-1.3% w/w) after 6 consecutive weeks of higher weekly input costs. Continued tailwinds from food products are offset by disruptive war-driven moves in packaging and transportation input…

Protein stands out – especially JBS & HRL – in an otherwise dreary & overvalued food sector. Increased consumer interest in protein, adoption of GLP-1 drugs, the high value ceiling set by high beef prices…

The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend declined -2% y/y (the 12-week trend is flat – we note -220 bps inflection). By sector, Sports Fandom’s 8-week spending trend is weakest (-15% y/y primarily…

Total nominal spending growth looks fairly consistent but gas station spending now accounts now 1/3 of nominal spending growth. Mortgage applications for a home purchase were running +19% y/y just eight weeks ago, and are…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor.  Costs were down -12.7% y/y just 5-weeks ago – a surprise challenge to CPG earnings algorithms. Cost tailwinds to watch: Softs/Sweeteners down -26.1% y/y, HSY -26.2% y/y, LW -19.0% y/y,…

The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran down -1.9% y/y, (the 12-week trend is flat, we note -190 bps inflection). By sector, Sports Fandom’s 8-week spending trend is worst at down -12.9%…

In this March report, we update our ongoing analysis across 88 consumer discretionary (see Figure 1). We calculate both (a) the inflection of AI-driven traffic, and (b) the mix of AI engagement within the context…

Optimal Advisory is pleased to bring you an updated Consumer Staples Briefing Book with 40+ pages and 100+ charts.  March real-time spending is moderating as 7/18 proprietary Optimal staples subsectors now inflecting positively (compared to…

This Week in Macro / TWIM Notes … (1) late March gas station spending is measurably eating into overall spend versus a month ago (gas station spending up 25%+ y/y, cannibalization remarkably about half of…

In this updated report, we analyze both mix of Gen Z engagement and inflection of Gen Z traction with this key 18-34 year-old consumer cohort – this demographic continues to take share of spending within the economy and change…

Earlier today, Brown Forman confirmed widely reported discussions with Pernod Ricard on what it describes as akin to a merger of equals.  Since the main impact would be a 74% expansion of Pernod Ricard’s US…

The Optimal Advisory Cost Factor down this week (-0.3% w/w) as energy paused but now only down slightly (-2.2% y/y).  Costs were down -12.7% y/y just 4-weeks ago – a sudden move that presents a…

In March 19/32 categories inflected negatively, slightly more negative than the 18/32 negative in February (despite increased inflation as driver of incremental nominal growth). We have added 2-week trend analysis (to 4- and 12-week) due…

The Optimal Sports Ecosystem Index revenue tracker’s 8-week trend ran down -0.6% y/y, in line with the 16-week trend. Within that industry, Sports Fandom’s 8-week spending trend is worst at down -7.3% y/y (EA, LYV,…